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Al Najaf vs Baghdad

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Raheem wali Kenani A.
69' Event
Talib H.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Al Najaf
15%
Draws
26%
Baghdad
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Najaf

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Baghdad have won more games recently than Al Najaf.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Al Najaf taking it.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Al Najaf Clean Sheet 13%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Najaf Baghdad
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 4 5
Draws 5 7
Losses 20 18
Goals Scored 0.83 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Baghdad
1:1
Oct 30, 2025 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Najaf
0:1
Apr 23, 2024 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Baghdad
1:1
Dec 14, 2023 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Najaf
1:2
Jun 17, 2022 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Najaf
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Najaf Compare

Top Goalscorer Raheem wali Kenani A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Baghdad Compare

Top Goalscorer Talib H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Najaf 35 / 100
Baghdad 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Najaf Baghdad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baghdad has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Al Najaf's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Al Najaf has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Najaf VS Baghdad
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Najaf

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1
Al Najaf
20 May
Al Najaf
2 : 5
Al Karkh
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1
Al Najaf
Page 1 of 6

Baghdad

(Away)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)