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Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq

Bahrain Bahrain

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Mahrouq S.
57' Event
Hadji Z.
76' Event
Abdulkarim H.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Al-Najma and Al-Muharraq finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al-Muharraq.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Al-Najma
15%
Draws
26%
Al-Muharraq
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al-Najma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Al-Muharraq carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Al-Najma's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Al-Najma Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Muharraq Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Najma Al-Muharraq
Matches Played 33 37
Wins 12 24
Draws 6 6
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.21 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.61 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq
1:3
Dec 28, 2025 Premier League
Al-Muharraq vs Al-Najma
2:0
Apr 21, 2025 Premier League
Al-Muharraq vs Al-Najma
2:0
Oct 26, 2024 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq
0:0
May 14, 2024 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Najma Compare

Top Goalscorer Hadji Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Muharraq Compare

Top Goalscorer Mahrouq S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abdulkarim H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Najma 42 / 100
Al-Muharraq 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Najma Al-Muharraq

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Najma's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Defensive concern: Al-Muharraq conceded in 70% of 37 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Al-Najma has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al-Najma VS Al-Muharraq
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Najma

(Home)
11 Sept
Al-Najma
2 : 3
East Riffa
02 Sept
Malkia
0 : 1
Al-Najma
27 Aug
Al-Najma
2 : 7
Al Khalidiyah
30 May
Al-Najma
3 : 2
Manama Club
25 May
Al-Budaiya
0 : 3
Al-Najma
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Al-Muharraq

(Away)
15 Sept
Arkadag
1 : 0
Al-Muharraq
10 Sept
Al-Muharraq
3 : 1
Manama Club
04 Sept
Al-Ittifaq
1 : 0
Al-Muharraq
28 Aug
Al-Muharraq
1 : 1
Al-Ahli
06 Aug
ZED FC
1 : 0
Al-Muharraq
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Muharraq 22 17 4 1 45:7 55
2 Al Khalidiyah 22 18 0 4 42:16 54
3 Al Riffa 22 15 4 3 41:17 49
4 Malkia 22 9 6 7 23:16 33
5 Aali Club 22 9 4 9 19:20 31
6 Al-Hidd 22 8 6 8 29:23 30
7 Al-Ahli 22 7 6 9 28:28 27
8 Sitra 22 7 6 9 22:31 27
9 Al-Budaiya 22 6 4 12 24:34 22
10 Al-Najma 22 6 4 12 21:35 22
11 Al-Shabbab 22 3 5 14 8:34 14
12 Bahrain SC 22 2 1 19 15:56 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)