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Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq

Bahrain Bahrain

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Mahrouq S.
57' Event
Hadji Z.
76' Event
Abdulkarim H.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al-Najma and Al-Muharraq finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al-Muharraq.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Al-Najma
44%
Draws
20%
Al-Muharraq
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Al-Muharraq carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Al-Najma Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Muharraq Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Najma Al-Muharraq
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 20
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 5
Goals Scored 1.25 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq
1:3
Dec 28, 2025 Premier League
Al-Muharraq vs Al-Najma
2:0
Apr 21, 2025 Premier League
Al-Muharraq vs Al-Najma
2:0
Oct 26, 2024 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq
0:0
May 14, 2024 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Najma Compare

Top Goalscorer Hadji Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Al-Muharraq Compare

Top Goalscorer Mahrouq S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abdulkarim H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Najma 36 / 100
Al-Muharraq 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Najma Al-Muharraq

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MUH Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Najma's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Al-Muharraq conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Al-Najma has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al-Najma VS Al-Muharraq
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Najma

(Home)
30 May
Al-Najma
3 : 2
Manama Club
25 May
Al-Budaiya
0 : 3
Al-Najma
21 May
Al-Najma
2 : 1
Al-Ittihad
16 May
Al-Najma
1 : 3
Al Khalidiyah
10 May
Bahrain SC
0 : 3
Al-Najma
Page 1 of 6

Al-Muharraq

(Away)
16 May
Al-Muharraq
1 : 0
Aali Club
11 May
Al Khalidiyah
1 : 2
Al-Muharraq
04 May
Al-Najma
1 : 3
Al-Muharraq
29 Apr
Al-Muharraq
1 : 0
Al-Budaiya
24 Apr
Al-Muharraq
2 : 1
Al Riffa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Muharraq22174145:755
2Al Khalidiyah22180442:1654
3Al Riffa22154341:1749
4Malkia2296723:1633
5Aali Club2294919:2031
6Al-Hidd2286829:2330
7Al-Ahli2276928:2827
8Sitra2276922:3127
9Al-Budaiya22641224:3422
10Al-Najma22641221:3522
11Al-Shabbab2235148:3414
12Bahrain SC22211915:567
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)