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Al-Najma vs Al Riffa

Bahrain Bahrain

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Vargas dos Santos V.
47' Event
Douiri A.
88' Event
Samuel Toscas

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al-Najma and Al Riffa finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Riffa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Al-Najma
39%
Draws
30%
Al Riffa
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Riffa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Al-Najma Clean Sheet 20%
Al Riffa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Najma Al Riffa
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 10 20
Draws 6 6
Losses 16 5
Goals Scored 1.25 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 13, 2026 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al Riffa
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Premier League
Al Riffa vs Al-Najma
1:1
Mar 4, 2025 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al Riffa
1:3
Sep 21, 2024 Premier League
Al Riffa vs Al-Najma
3:0
Mar 8, 2024 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al Riffa
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Najma Compare

Top Goalscorer Douiri A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Al Riffa Compare

Top Goalscorer Vargas dos Santos V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Samuel Toscas
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Najma 32 / 100
Al Riffa 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Najma Al Riffa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RIF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Al-Najma's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Al Riffa has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Al-Najma went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Najma VS Al Riffa
1.25 Goals Scored 2.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Muharraq22174145:755
2Al Khalidiyah22180442:1654
3Al Riffa22154341:1749
4Malkia2296723:1633
5Aali Club2294919:2031
6Al-Hidd2286829:2330
7Al-Ahli2276928:2827
8Sitra2276922:3127
9Al-Budaiya22641224:3422
10Al-Najma22641221:3522
11Al-Shabbab2235148:3414
12Bahrain SC22211915:567