Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Nassr vs Abha

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Ronaldo C.
Assist: Angelo
58' Event
Al Hamdan A.
63'
Sub
Al Johani S. In: Al Shamrani K.
Out: Al Johani S.

AI Match Summary

The Saudi Professional League game between Al Nassr and Abha finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Nassr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Al Nassr
30%
Draws
16%
Abha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Nassr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Nassr carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Al Nassr's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Saudi Professional League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al Nassr here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 20%
Abha Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Nassr Abha
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 23 14
Draws 2 5
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 2.34 1.3
Goals Conceded 1 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Abha
2:1
Apr 2, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Abha vs Al Nassr
0:8
Oct 6, 2023 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Abha
2:2
Mar 18, 2023 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Abha
2:1
Mar 14, 2023 King Cup
Al Nassr vs Abha
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronaldo C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Al Hamdan A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Abha Compare

Top Goalscorer Fekir N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Nassr 85 / 100
Abha 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Nassr Abha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Nassr Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 8:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Nassr's goal record stands at 91% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Abha's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Al Nassr remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Nassr VS Abha
2.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Nassr

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0
Al Nassr
12 Sept
Al Khaleej
1 : 1
Al Nassr
09 Sept
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Abha
05 Sept
Al Ittihad
2 : 1
Al Nassr
28 Aug
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Al Taawon
Page 1 of 7

Abha

(Away)
13 Sept
Al Diriyah
0 : 0
Abha
09 Sept
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Abha
04 Sept
Abha
0 : 1
Al Ettifaq FC
28 Aug
Al Fayha
3 : 2
Abha
25 Aug
Abha
1 : 1
Al Khaleej
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Hilal 7 6 0 1 23:5 18
2 Al Ittihad 7 5 2 0 12:6 17
3 Al Nassr 7 5 1 1 16:7 16
4 Al Qadsiah 7 5 1 1 16:8 16
5 Neom SC 7 5 0 2 13:6 15
6 Al Ahli SC 7 4 0 3 16:10 12
7 Al Kholood 7 3 3 1 12:10 12
8 Al Diriyah 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
9 Al Ettifaq FC 7 3 2 2 11:11 11
10 Al Hazem Rass 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
11 Al Riyadh 7 2 2 3 8:16 8
12 Al Fayha 7 1 3 3 7:11 6
13 Al Khaleej 7 0 5 2 3:10 5
14 Al Shabab 7 0 4 3 6:11 4
15 Al Fateh 7 0 3 4 4:11 3
16 Al-Faisaly 7 0 3 4 5:13 3
17 Al Taawon 7 0 3 4 3:12 3
18 Abha 7 0 2 5 5:13 2
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 2027/2028 (Main)