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Stadium Background

Al Nassr vs Arkadag

Asia Asia

AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Ghareeb A.
Assist: Boushal N.
46'
Sub
Meredov D. In: Durdyyew D.
Out: Meredov D.
64'
Sub
Gurbanow Y. In: Myratberdiyev R.
Out: Gurbanow Y.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Al Nassr advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Al Nassr
15%
Draws
58%
Arkadag
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arkadag

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Nassr have managed 2.3 goals a game lately — Arkadag are scoring more at 3.3.
  • Win probability leans Arkadag's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Nassr, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 10%
Arkadag Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Nassr Arkadag
Matches Played 33 27
Wins 24 24
Draws 2 0
Losses 7 3
Goals Scored 2.3 3.3
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2026 AFC Champions League 2
Al Nassr vs Arkadag
1:0
Feb 11, 2026 AFC Champions League 2
Arkadag vs Al Nassr
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Ghareeb A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Arkadag Compare

Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Nassr 10 / 100
Arkadag 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Nassr Arkadag

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arkadag Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Nassr's goal record stands at 91% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Solid form: Al Nassr remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Arkadag conceded in 48% of 27 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Al Nassr VS Arkadag
2.38 Goals Scored 3.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Nassr

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0
Al Nassr
12 Sept
Al Khaleej
1 : 1
Al Nassr
09 Sept
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Abha
05 Sept
Al Ittihad
2 : 1
Al Nassr
28 Aug
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Al Taawon
Page 1 of 7

Arkadag

(Away)
20 Sept
Kopetdag Asgabat
0 : 1
Arkadag
15 Sept
Arkadag
1 : 0
Al Muharraq
05 Sept
Nebitci
2 : 4
Arkadag
30 Aug
Sagadam
0 : 3
Arkadag
26 Aug
Arkadag
3 : 0
FC Asgabat
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Al Zawraa 5
Al Wasl 6
Arkadag 0
Al Nassr 2
Sepahan 2
Al Ahli 3
Esteghlal TEH 2
Al Hussein 4
Pohang 2
Gamba Osaka 3
Ratchaburi 3
Persib Bandung 1
Bangkok Utd 4
Macarthur FC 2
Cong An Ha Noi 1
Tampines 6
Quarter-finals
Al Wasl 0
Al Nassr 4
Al Ahli 3
Al Hussein 1
Gamba Osaka 3
Ratchaburi 2
Bangkok Utd 4
Tampines 3
Semi-finals
Al Nassr 5
Al Ahli 1
Gamba Osaka 3
Bangkok Utd 1
Final
Al Nassr 0
Gamba Osaka 1