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Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
05:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Quwa Al Jawiya host Al Karma in the Stars League. This one's hard to separate. Al Quwa Al Jawiya have averaged 1.83 scored and 1.1 conceded recently, against Al Karma's 1.54 scored and 0.75 conceded. Past meetings favor Al Quwa Al Jawiya slightly — 2-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 10, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 0.81 vs 1.50, favoring Al Quwa Al Jawiya. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
15%
Draws
58%
Al Karma
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya have won more games recently than Al Karma.
  • Model gives Al Karma a 58% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya Clean Sheet 16%
Al Karma Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Karma
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 13
Draws 9 11
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 1.83 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Stars League
Al Karma vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
3:0
Jan 9, 2026 Stars League
Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karma
1:0
Feb 15, 2025 Stars League
Al Karma vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
2:1
Dec 12, 2024 Stars League
Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karma
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 28 / 100
Al Karma 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Karma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Quwa Al Jawiya found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Al Quwa Al Jawiya remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Al Karma conceded in 54% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al Quwa Al Jawiya VS Al Karma
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

(Home)
07 Oct
Al Mosul
0 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
10 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0 : 1
Al Zawraa
07 Sept
Karbala
2 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Page 1 of 6

Al Karma

(Away)
19 Sept
Al Karma
1 : 0
Zakho
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al Karma
09 Sept
Al Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al Karma
30 Aug
Al Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Newroz 9 5 3 1 14:4 18
3 Al Zawraa 9 5 3 1 15:6 18
4 Erbil 9 5 3 1 13:4 18
5 Al Naft 9 5 3 1 11:5 18
6 Al Shorta 9 4 4 1 9:4 16
7 Duhok 9 2 6 1 14:11 12
8 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 9 2 5 2 14:12 11
9 Al Golan 9 2 5 2 8:9 11
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Diyala 9 2 3 4 13:16 9
12 Zakho 9 2 3 4 7:12 9
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Talaba 9 1 5 3 9:14 8
15 Naft Missan 9 1 5 3 7:12 8
16 Al Mosul 9 2 2 5 9:15 8
17 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
18 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
19 Al Gharraf 9 1 3 5 4:12 6
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)