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Al Rayyan vs Umm-Salal Prediction & H2H Stats

Qatar Qatar

QSL Cup 2025/2026 Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Sat, Mar 28, 2026
4 - 3
03:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Cristo
(Penalty)
30' Event
Al Hajri S.
Assist: Tahif A.
36'
El Sayed A.

AI Match Summary

Al Rayyan in this QSL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 4-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Al Rayyan
35%
Draws
34%
Umm-Salal
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Rayyan lately — more wins on the board than Umm-Salal.
  • Al Rayyan are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Al Rayyan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Rayyan, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al Rayyan here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Al Rayyan Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Rayyan Umm-Salal
Matches Played 36 31
Wins 22 12
Draws 8 5
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 2.25 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2026 QSL
Al Rayyan vs Umm-Salal
3:0
Mar 28, 2026 QSL Cup
Al Rayyan vs Umm-Salal
4:3
Nov 22, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Rayyan
1:2
Jan 10, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Rayyan
2:6
Nov 16, 2024 QSL Cup
Umm-Salal vs Al Rayyan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Rayyan Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gabriel Pereira
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Hajri S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kouassi J. E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Rayyan 85 / 100
Umm-Salal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Rayyan Umm-Salal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Rayyan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Rayyan's goal record stands at 92% scoring rate across 36 recent games.

Umm-Salal let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Al Rayyan stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Rayyan VS Umm-Salal
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Rayyan

(Home)
28 Sept
Al Sailiya
1 : 1
Al Rayyan
20 Sept
Al Rayyan
2 : 2
Qatar SC
16 Sept
Al Rayyan
4 : 3
Al-Faisaly Amman
11 Sept
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Al Ahli
05 Sept
Al Rayyan
1 : 1
Al-Duhail
Page 1 of 8

Umm-Salal

(Away)
29 Sept
Al Khor
0 : 2
Umm-Salal
21 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 0
Al-Kharitiyath
07 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 5
Al Khor
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2
Umm-Salal
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1
Qatar U23
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Al Rayyan -
TBD -
Al-Shahaniya 1
Shamal 0
Umm-Salal -
TBD -
Al Sailiya 1
Al Bidda 3
Muaither SC 2
Al-Kharitiyath 0
Al Markhiya 2
Al Khor 1
Al Arabi (Qatar) 3
Qatar SC 2
Al-Waab 3
Al Mesaimeer 1
Quarter-finals
Al Rayyan 3
Al-Shahaniya 0
Umm-Salal 2
Al Bidda 0
Muaither SC 3
Al Markhiya 2
Al Arabi (Qatar) 3
Al-Waab 1
Semi-finals
Al Rayyan 4
Umm-Salal 3
Muaither SC 4
Al Arabi (Qatar) 3
Final
Al Rayyan 2
Muaither SC 0