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Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Riyadh
Al Riyadh Logo

Al Riyadh

0 - 4
FT
Al Nassr Logo

Al Nassr

Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Al Amri A.
Assist: Angelo
45' Event
Angelo
58' Event
Joao Felix
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Al Nassr in this Saudi Professional League matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Nassr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Al Riyadh
15%
Draws
58%
Al Nassr
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Nassr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Nassr have won more games recently than Al Riyadh.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Al Nassr taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al Nassr have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Al Riyadh Clean Sheet 12%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Riyadh Al Nassr
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 22
Draws 7 2
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.1 2.35
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr
0:4
Feb 2, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh
5:1
Apr 12, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh
2:1
Nov 8, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Riyadh Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Amri A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Angelo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Riyadh 10 / 100
Al Nassr 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Riyadh Al Nassr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Nassr Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Riyadh found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Al Nassr let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Al Riyadh remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Riyadh VS Al Nassr
0.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Riyadh

(Home)
29 Oct
Al Riyadh
0 : 6
Al Qadsiah
24 Oct
Al Riyadh
2 : 1
Al Taawon
20 Oct
Al Diriyah
1 : 0
Al Riyadh
11 Oct
Al Fayha
1 : 1
Al Riyadh
13 Sept
Al Riyadh
2 : 0
Al Kholood
Page 1 of 6

Al Nassr

(Away)
02 Nov
Pakhtakor
2 : 6
Al Nassr
29 Oct
Al Nassr
5 : 3
Al Kholood
23 Oct
Al Faisaly
1 : 3
Al Nassr
20 Oct
Al Nassr
1 : 0
Neom SC
12 Oct
Al Nassr
3 : 1
Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Hilal 11 10 0 1 32:9 30
2 Al Qadsiah 12 9 1 2 32:12 28
3 Al Nassr 11 9 1 1 28:11 28
4 Al Ittihad 11 7 3 1 21:11 24
5 Neom SC 12 7 1 4 18:10 22
6 Al Ahli SC 11 7 0 4 28:19 21
7 Al Ettifaq FC 12 5 4 3 18:17 19
8 Al Diriyah 12 4 3 5 10:13 15
9 Al Khaleej 12 3 6 3 14:19 15
10 Al Shabab 11 3 5 3 20:15 14
11 Al Kholood 11 3 3 5 17:26 12
12 Al Riyadh 11 3 3 5 11:25 12
13 Al Fayha 12 2 5 5 16:20 11
14 Al Hazem Rass 12 2 4 6 14:20 10
15 Al Faisaly 12 2 4 6 13:24 10
16 Al Fateh 12 1 3 8 10:25 6
17 Al Taawon 12 0 5 7 6:20 5
18 Abha 11 0 3 8 7:19 3
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 2027/2028 (Main)