Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Riyadh
Fri, Aug 21, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Riyadh host Al Nassr in the Saudi Professional League. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Al Riyadh at 1.14 goals for, 1.86 against; Al Nassr at 2.25 for, 1 against. Past meetings favor Al Nassr slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 2, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.07 vs 2.06, favoring Al Nassr. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Al Riyadh
33%
Draws
40%
Al Nassr
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Al Nassr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Nassr have won more games recently than Al Riyadh.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Al Nassr taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al Nassr have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Al Riyadh Clean Sheet 10%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Riyadh Al Nassr
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 5 23
Draws 10 2
Losses 15 3
Goals Scored 1.14 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.86 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.86 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh
5:1
Apr 12, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Riyadh
2:1
Nov 8, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr
0:1
May 23, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Riyadh 26 / 100
Al Nassr 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Riyadh Al Nassr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Riyadh found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Al Riyadh has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Al Nassr conceded in 43% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al Riyadh VS Al Nassr
1.14 Goals Scored 2.25
1.86 Goals Conceded 1
71% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 50%
43% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Riyadh

(Home)
27 Jul
Al Riyadh
2 : 2
Al-Gharafa
21 May
Al Riyadh
1 : 0
Al Okhdood
15 May
Al Taawon
1 : 1
Al Riyadh
10 May
Al Riyadh
1 : 0
Al Fateh
04 May
Al Fayha
4 : 2
Al Riyadh
Page 1 of 6

Al Nassr

(Away)
22 Jul
Benfica B
2 : 1
Al Nassr
21 May
Al Nassr
4 : 1
Damac
16 May
Al Nassr
0 : 1
Gamba Osaka
12 May
Al Nassr
1 : 1
Al Hilal
07 May
Al Shabab
2 : 4
Al Nassr
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Hilal00000:00
2Al Ettifaq FC00000:00
3Al Ittihad00000:00
4Al Shabab00000:00
5Abha00000:00
6Al Ahli SC00000:00
7Al Hazem Rass00000:00
8Al Nassr00000:00
9Al Fateh00000:00
10Al Qadsiah00000:00
11Al Taawon00000:00
12Al-Faisaly00000:00
13Al Khaleej00000:00
14Al Riyadh00000:00
15Neom SC00000:00
16Al Diriyah00000:00
17Al Fayha00000:00
18Al Kholood00000:00
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 2027/2028 (Main)