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Al Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa Prediction & H2H Stats

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
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Match Events

4'
El Ghazi A.
34'
El Ghazi A.
36'
Sub
Olwan A. In: Al Tairi O.
Out: Olwan A.

AI Match Summary

Al Sailiya in this QSL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Sailiya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Al Sailiya
20%
Draws
64%
Al-Gharafa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al-Gharafa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al-Gharafa lately — more wins on the board than Al Sailiya.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Al Sailiya Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Sailiya Al-Gharafa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 4 4
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.14 1.41
Goals Conceded 2.07 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2026 QSL
Al Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa
1:0
Oct 17, 2025 QSL Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Al Sailiya
0:3
Sep 12, 2025 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Al Sailiya
2:0
Mar 3, 2024 QFA Cup
Al Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa
3:1
Jan 29, 2023 QSL
Al Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Sailiya Compare

Top Goalscorer Snana Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Gharafa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Sailiya 32 / 100
Al-Gharafa 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Sailiya Al-Gharafa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Gharafa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Gharafa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Al Sailiya scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Difficult form: Al-Gharafa registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Sailiya VS Al-Gharafa
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Sailiya

(Home)
28 Sept
Al Sailiya
1 : 1
Al Rayyan
20 Sept
Al Wakra
1 : 0
Al Sailiya
10 Sept
Al Sailiya
3 : 6
Al-Sadd
03 Sept
Al Sailiya
0 : 2
Al Arabi (Qatar)
29 Aug
Al-Shahaniya
3 : 2
Al Sailiya
Page 1 of 6

Al-Gharafa

(Away)
01 Oct
Al-Gharafa
4 : 2
Al Mesaimeer
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al-Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al-Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al-Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)