Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Shabab vs Al Nassr

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League 2025/2026 Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh
Al Shabab Logo

Al Shabab

2 - 4
FT
Al Nassr Logo

Al Nassr

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Joao Felix
10' Event
Joao Felix
Assist: Ghareeb A.
30' Event
Carrasco Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Al Nassr in this Saudi Professional League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Nassr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Al Shabab
35%
Draws
45%
Al Nassr
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Nassr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Al Nassr have won more games recently than Al Shabab.
  • Win probability leans Al Shabab's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Saudi Professional League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al Nassr have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Al Shabab Clean Sheet 10%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Shabab Al Nassr
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 20
Draws 9 2
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.93 2.48
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Shabab vs Al Nassr
2:4
Jan 17, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Shabab
3:2
Mar 7, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Shabab
2:2
Oct 18, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Shabab vs Al Nassr
1:2
Feb 25, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Shabab vs Al Nassr
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Shabab Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrasco Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Al Bulayhi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Felix
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ronaldo C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Shabab 34 / 100
Al Nassr 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Shabab Al Nassr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Shabab's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Al Nassr's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Al Shabab stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Shabab VS Al Nassr
1.38 Goals Scored 2.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Shabab

(Home)
12 Sept
Al Shabab
0 : 0
Al Fayha
09 Sept
Al Kholood
2 : 1
Al Shabab
04 Sept
Al Shabab
0 : 2
Al Hilal
30 Aug
Al Hazem Rass
1 : 1
Al Shabab
25 Aug
Al Shabab
3 : 3
Al Riyadh
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Al Nassr

(Away)
15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0
Al Nassr
12 Sept
Al Khaleej
1 : 1
Al Nassr
09 Sept
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Abha
05 Sept
Al Ittihad
2 : 1
Al Nassr
28 Aug
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Al Taawon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Nassr 34 28 2 4 91:28 86
2 Al Hilal 34 25 9 0 85:27 84
3 Al Ahli SC 34 25 6 3 71:25 81
4 Al Qadsiah 34 23 8 3 83:34 77
5 Al Ittihad 34 16 7 11 55:48 55
6 Al Taawon 34 15 8 11 59:46 53
7 Al Ettifaq FC 34 14 8 12 51:55 50
8 Neom SC 34 12 9 13 43:48 45
9 Al Hazem Rass 34 11 9 14 38:57 42
10 Al Fayha 34 10 8 16 41:54 38
11 Al Fateh 34 9 10 15 41:55 37
12 Al Khaleej 34 10 7 17 54:62 37
13 Al Shabab 34 8 11 15 44:57 35
14 Al Kholood 34 9 6 19 39:61 33
15 Al Riyadh 34 7 9 18 35:63 30
16 Damac 34 6 11 17 32:55 29
17 Al Okhdood 34 5 5 24 27:70 20
18 Al Najma 34 3 7 24 32:76 16
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 (Main)