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Al Shorta vs Al Mosul Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Yahia Alwan A.
Assist: Barco C.
68' Event
Barco C.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Shorta and Al Mosul finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Shorta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Al Shorta
30%
Draws
6%
Al Mosul
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Shorta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Al Shorta carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Al Shorta are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Shorta have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 20%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Shorta Al Mosul
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 8
Draws 9 13
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.6 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Al Mosul
2:0
Mar 12, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Al Shorta
0:1
Jan 13, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Al Mosul
3:0
Feb 27, 2025 Iraq Cup
Al Shorta vs Al Mosul
1:0
May 24, 2011 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Al Mosul
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Shorta Compare

Top Goalscorer Yahia Alwan A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barco C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Al Mosul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Shorta 42 / 100
Al Mosul 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Shorta Al Mosul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Shorta scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Al Mosul's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Al Shorta stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Al Shorta VS Al Mosul
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Shorta

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Kahraba
16 Sept
Al Shorta
1 : 0
Al Seeb
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
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Al Mosul

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
13 Sept
Zakho
2 : 1
Al Mosul
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
03 Sept
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Zawraa
30 Aug
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Mosul
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)