Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Shorta vs Erbil

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Chobanov M.
37' Event
Leonel Ateba
Penalty Missed
66' Event
Barco C.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Shorta and Erbil finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Al Shorta
30%
Draws
33%
Erbil
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Shorta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Erbil have managed 1.63 goals a game lately — Al Shorta are scoring more at 1.77.
  • Win probability leans Al Shorta's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 20%
Erbil Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Shorta Erbil
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 18
Draws 9 8
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 1.77 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.81 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Erbil
0:0
May 20, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Erbil
0:2
Oct 24, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Shorta
1:0
Apr 28, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Shorta
0:2
Jan 4, 2025 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Erbil
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Shorta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Chobanov M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barco C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Shorta 36 / 100
Erbil 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Shorta Erbil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Shorta scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Al Shorta went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Erbil's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Shorta VS Erbil
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Shorta

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Kahraba
16 Sept
Al Shorta
1 : 0
Al Seeb
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
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Erbil

(Away)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)