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Al Waab vs Lusail - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Qatar Qatar

QSL Cup Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Al Hassan M.
65' Event
Stojanovski G.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Al Waab
35%
Draws
29%
Lusail
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Waab

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Lusail haven't matched Al Waab's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Al Waab a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Al Waab have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lusail, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Al Waab Clean Sheet 20%
Lusail Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Waab Lusail
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 13 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.43 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 QSL Cup
Al Waab vs Lusail
1:1
Feb 3, 2026 QSL 2
Lusail vs Al Waab
1:2
Jan 10, 2026 Emir Cup
Al Waab vs Lusail
2:0
Aug 19, 2025 QSL 2
Al Waab vs Lusail
0:2
Apr 21, 2025 Emir Cup
Al Waab vs Lusail
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Waab Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Hassan M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lusail Compare

Top Goalscorer Stojanovski G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Waab 36 / 100
Lusail 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Waab Lusail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Waab's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Al Waab remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Lusail's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Al Waab VS Lusail
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Waab

(Home)
29 Sept
Al Waab
1 : 1
Lusail
22 Sept
Al Mesaimeer
0 : 1
Al Waab
06 Sept
Al Waab
1 : 1
Qatar U23
31 Aug
Shamal 2
0 : 2
Al Waab
25 Aug
Al Waab
1 : 0
Al Rayyan 2
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Lusail

(Away)
29 Sept
Al Waab
1 : 1
Lusail
21 Sept
Lusail
1 : 0
Al Markhiya
11 Sept
Al Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
04 Sept
Lusail
4 : 0
Al Wakra
28 Aug
Al Ahli
3 : 3
Lusail
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shamal 2 2 0 0 6:1 6
2 Al Duhail 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
3 Umm-Salal 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
4 Qatar SC 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
5 Al Wakra 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
6 Lusail 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
7 Al Waab 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
8 Al Gharafa 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
9 Muaither SC 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
10 Al Shahaniya 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
11 Al Rayyan 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
12 Al Sailiya 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
13 Al Ahli 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
14 Al Markhiya 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
15 Al Kharitiyath 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
16 Al Arabi (Qatar) 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
17 Al Mesaimeer 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
18 Al Khor 2 0 0 2 0:4 0
19 Al Bidda 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
Promotion - QSL Cup (Main)