Sport Picks

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Al Yarmuk vs Al Ahli

Yemen Yemen

Division 1 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Yarmuk play Al Ahli in the Division 1 2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Al Yarmuk averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Al Ahli averaged 1.39 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. In past meetings, Al Yarmuk won 1, Al Ahli won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 15, 2021 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Al Yarmuk and 0.75 for Al Ahli. This points to a Al Ahli double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Al Yarmuk
19%
Draws
43%
Al Ahli
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Al Ahli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Yarmuk picked up more points recently compared to Al Ahli.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 0.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Al Yarmuk Clean Sheet 27%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Yarmuk Al Ahli
Matches Played 18 33
Wins 7 18
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.28 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2021 Division 1
Al Yarmuk vs Al Ahli
2:0
Sep 21, 2021 Division 1
Al Ahli vs Al Yarmuk
4:0
Mar 20, 2015 Division 1
Al Ahli vs Al Yarmuk
0:0
Dec 13, 2014 Division 1
Al Yarmuk vs Al Ahli
0:1
Mar 30, 2014 Division 1
Al Ahli vs Al Yarmuk
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Yarmuk 40 / 100
Al Ahli 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Yarmuk Al Ahli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Al Ahli or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Al Yarmuk attacking → ← attacking Al Ahli

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Yarmuk scored in 78% of their last 18 games.

Al Ahli let in goals in 39% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Al Yarmuk went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Al Ahli lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 59
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al Wahda1062214:820
2Fhman1043316:1215
3Al Shabab Hadramaut103618:515
4Al Oruba1033413:1512
5Al-Ittihad102538:1011
6Shabab Al Jeel100557:165
7Al-Tilal00000:00
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al Ahli851210:416
2Al-Saqr83238:811
3Al Helal Al Sahely83238:911
4Al Yarmuk82338:129
5Al-Shaab Ibb82248:98
6Al-Wahda Aden00000:00
7Al Shula00000:00