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Al Zawraa vs Naft Al-Basra

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Zawraa play Naft Al-Basra in the Stars League 2024/2025. Al Zawraa are favorites here. Recently, Al Zawraa averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.95 conceded. Naft Al-Basra averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, Al Zawraa won 3, Naft Al-Basra won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 26, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Al Zawraa and 1.00 for Naft Al-Basra. This points to a Al Zawraa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Al Zawraa
25%
Draws
15%
Naft Al-Basra
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Al Zawraa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Al Zawraa picked up more points recently compared to Naft Al-Basra.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Al Zawraa Clean Sheet 23%
Naft Al-Basra Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Zawraa Naft Al-Basra
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 19 5
Draws 13 9
Losses 6 16
Goals Scored 1.5 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.95 1.37

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2025 Stars League
Al Zawraa vs Naft Al-Basra
3:0
Dec 5, 2024 Stars League
Naft Al-Basra vs Al Zawraa
0:0
Apr 23, 2024 Stars League
Al Zawraa vs Naft Al-Basra
3:0
Dec 5, 2023 Stars League
Naft Al-Basra vs Al Zawraa
0:2
Jul 5, 2023 Stars League
Naft Al-Basra vs Al Zawraa
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Zawraa Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomiwa Gbadamosi I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Muhsen A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Naft Al-Basra Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Zawraa 59 / 100
Naft Al-Basra 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Zawraa Naft Al-Basra

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Zawraa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Al Zawraa & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Al Zawraa attacking → ← attacking Naft Al-Basra

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Zawraa scored in 84% of their last 38 games.

Naft Al-Basra let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Al Zawraa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Naft Al-Basra lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

70 Points in last 5 24
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al Shorta38269375:2387
2Al Zawraa38238756:2877
3Zakho382011757:2571
4Al Talaba381891140:2763
5Al Quwa Al Jawiya381791251:4360
6Al Naft381514932:2759
7Duhok381691347:4157
8Al-Karma3815111243:3556
9Newroz3814111346:4153
10Al-Qassim3813131243:4352
11Naft Missan381491542:4651
12Erbil381551849:6150
13Al Kahraba3812131339:4149
14Al Najaf3811131437:3646
15Al Karkh3812101640:4946
16Al Minaa3811101739:4443
17Diyala3810111731:5041
18Naft Al-Basra38892132:5733
19Al-Hudod38822837:7926
20Karbala384102426:6622