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Alacranes de Durango vs CF Orgullo Reynosa

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A 2023/2024 Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango
Alacranes de Durango Logo

Alacranes de Durango

Sat, Mar 2, 2024
3 - 2
02:00 AM
CF Orgullo Reynosa Logo

CF Orgullo Reynosa

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Lozano A.
71' Event
Padilla P.
90' Event
Elizondo Trevino D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alacranes de Durango in this Liga Premier Serie A 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alacranes de Durango.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Alacranes de Durango
35%
Draws
25%
CF Orgullo Reynosa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Alacranes de Durango

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Alacranes de Durango have won more games recently than CF Orgullo Reynosa.
  • Model gives Alacranes de Durango a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Premier Serie A 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 68%
CF Orgullo Reynosa Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alacranes de Durango CF Orgullo Reynosa
Matches Played 39 29
Wins 23 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.85 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A
Alacranes de Durango vs CF Orgullo Reynosa
3:2
Sep 30, 2023 Liga Premier Serie A
CF Orgullo Reynosa vs Alacranes de Durango
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alacranes de Durango Compare

Top Goalscorer Lozano A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Padilla P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

CF Orgullo Reynosa Compare

Top Goalscorer Elizondo Trevino D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arana J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alacranes de Durango 59 / 100
CF Orgullo Reynosa 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alacranes de Durango CF Orgullo Reynosa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alacranes de Durango Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Alacranes de Durango scored in 79% of their last 39 outings.

CF Orgullo Reynosa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Alacranes de Durango has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alacranes de Durango VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alacranes de Durango

(Home)
27 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 1
Alacranes de Durango
18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0
Alacranes de Durango
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1
Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Correcaminos
0 : 0
Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 8

CF Orgullo Reynosa

(Away)
05 May
Gavilanes de Matamoros
1 : 1
CF Orgullo Reynosa
02 May
CF Orgullo Reynosa
0 : 1
Gavilanes de Matamoros
26 Apr
Correcaminos 2
1 : 2
CF Orgullo Reynosa
20 Apr
CF Orgullo Reynosa
1 : 1
Gavilanes de Matamoros
06 Apr
UA Zacatecas
3 : 2
CF Orgullo Reynosa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Los Cabos United 32 20 6 6 55:27 71
2 Alacranes de Durango 32 18 10 4 53:22 67
3 Gavilanes de Matamoros 32 16 7 9 46:33 57
4 Correcaminos 2 32 17 2 13 48:47 57
5 Tecos 32 15 6 11 54:36 53
6 Leones Negros 2 32 15 2 15 47:45 52
7 Cimarrones de Sonora 2 32 13 7 12 32:31 48
8 UA Zacatecas 32 14 8 10 46:38 47
9 CF Orgullo Reynosa 32 11 11 10 31:29 47
10 Tritones Vallarta 32 11 11 10 33:27 46
11 Saltillo 32 11 11 10 30:31 46
12 Apodaca 32 12 6 14 42:41 45
13 Mineros de Fresnillo 32 10 10 12 38:41 40
14 Calor De San Pedro 32 11 6 15 31:50 37
15 Dragones Toluca 32 8 5 19 22:56 29
16 Colima FC 32 7 3 22 31:62 25
17 Coras FC 32 6 3 23 25:48 21
18 Chihuahua F.C. 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2023/2024 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 32 23 5 4 46:18 77
2 Jaiba Brava 32 19 6 7 59:29 67
3 Deportiva Venados 32 18 5 9 52:38 62
4 Irapuato 32 14 11 7 55:24 57
5 Aguacateros de Periban 32 16 6 10 56:37 57
6 Petroleros Salamanca 32 16 5 11 34:22 56
7 Inter Playa Del Carmen 32 14 10 8 39:29 56
8 Montaneses 32 16 5 11 47:42 56
9 Escorpiones 32 14 9 9 38:29 54
10 Reboceros de La Piedad 32 13 4 15 39:35 47
11 Cafetaleros de Chiapas 32 14 4 14 40:38 47
12 Pioneros 32 10 7 15 32:47 37
13 Lobos ULMX 32 9 5 18 29:47 34
14 Halcones de Zapopan 32 6 13 13 29:38 32
15 CS Canamy 32 9 3 20 40:58 29
16 San Juan de Aragon 32 7 2 23 30:62 25
17 Inter de Queretaro 32 3 2 27 18:90 10
18 Yalmakan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2023/2024 (Play Offs)