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Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros 2

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango
Alacranes de Durango Logo

Alacranes de Durango

1 - 0
FT
Leones Negros 2 Logo

Leones Negros 2

Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Valenzuela A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 game between Alacranes de Durango and Leones Negros 2 finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alacranes de Durango.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Alacranes de Durango
20%
Draws
65%
Leones Negros 2
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leones Negros 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Leones Negros 2 come out ahead of Alacranes de Durango on wins alone.
  • Alacranes de Durango are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Alacranes de Durango here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 20%
Leones Negros 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alacranes de Durango Leones Negros 2
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 17
Draws 8 2
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.47
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.85 0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros 2
1:0
Sep 27, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Leones Negros 2 vs Alacranes de Durango
0:2
Jan 25, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros 2
2:1
Sep 21, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A
Leones Negros 2 vs Alacranes de Durango
0:0
Apr 13, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A
Leones Negros 2 vs Alacranes de Durango
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alacranes de Durango Compare

Top Goalscorer Valenzuela A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.93

Leones Negros 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alacranes de Durango 42 / 100
Leones Negros 2 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alacranes de Durango Leones Negros 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alacranes de Durango found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Leones Negros 2's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Alacranes de Durango went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alacranes de Durango VS Leones Negros 2
1.38 Goals Scored 0.67
1 Goals Conceded 2.33
75% Over 1.5 67%
63% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Alacranes de Durango

(Home)
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0
Alacranes de Durango
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1
Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Correcaminos
0 : 0
Alacranes de Durango
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2
Leones Negros
16 Aug
Cancun
2 : 0
Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 6

Leones Negros 2

(Away)
18 Apr
Leones Negros 2
1 : 2
Celaya
16 Apr
Celaya
5 : 0
Leones Negros 2
11 Apr
Leones Negros 2
1 : 0
Tritones Vallarta
27 Mar
Tecos
0 : 2
Leones Negros 2
21 Mar
Leones Negros 2
2 : 1
Guerreros de Autlan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alacranes de Durango 26 21 2 3 71:16 74
2 Tigres de Alica 26 17 3 6 46:25 56
3 Cimarrones de Sonora 26 15 7 4 46:19 54
4 Leones Negros 2 26 16 2 8 42:26 53
5 Tecos 26 14 4 8 49:34 49
6 Tritones Vallarta 26 15 1 10 32:27 46
7 Mineros de Fresnillo 26 11 4 11 40:41 39
8 Los Cabos United 26 11 3 12 37:40 37
9 Guerreros de Autlan 26 8 5 13 38:42 32
10 UA Zacatecas 26 8 4 14 32:49 29
11 Ensenada FC 26 8 2 16 30:55 28
12 Reboceros de La Piedad 26 7 1 18 39:66 23
13 Zapotlanejo 26 6 1 19 39:73 21
14 Colima FC 26 4 3 19 24:52 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Apodaca 26 21 2 3 47:19 66
2 FC Santiago 26 14 7 5 43:21 51
3 Zacatepec 26 12 8 6 29:15 45
4 Halcones de Zapopan 26 11 6 9 44:27 44
5 Calor De San Pedro 26 12 7 7 37:26 44
6 Gavilanes de Matamoros 26 12 5 9 31:22 44
7 Lobos ULMX 26 11 6 9 33:28 40
8 Correcaminos 2 26 9 7 10 27:25 36
9 Chilpancingo 26 9 8 9 33:41 35
10 Cordobes FC 26 8 6 12 29:30 30
11 Zitacuaro 26 6 10 10 22:31 28
12 CS Canamy 26 5 8 13 33:53 26
13 Ciervos 26 4 4 18 20:50 18
14 Atletico Hidalgo 26 4 4 18 22:62 16
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 24 21 3 0 55:9 71
2 Deportiva Venados 24 15 4 5 61:25 52
3 Tapachula 24 13 0 11 51:35 44
4 Celaya 24 12 4 8 42:32 43
5 Inter Playa Del Carmen 24 13 4 7 35:28 42
6 Montaneses 24 12 2 10 35:28 38
7 Pioneros 24 10 3 11 35:35 35
8 Jaguares De Chiapas 24 9 4 11 33:32 34
9 Heroes de Zaci 24 10 2 12 33:46 34
10 Chapulineros 24 5 8 11 21:33 23
11 Canoneros FC 24 7 1 16 25:49 22
12 Neza FC 24 5 2 17 25:73 19
13 Dragones Toluca 24 4 3 17 21:47 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)