Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A Estadio Francisco Zarco

Match Events

19'

Quinones F.

37'

Torres J.

74'

Parra Teran J. A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alacranes de Durango host Zapotlanejo in the Liga Premier Serie A. This has Alacranes de Durango written all over it on paper. Zapotlanejo have shipped 2.86 goals a game lately, while Alacranes de Durango have conceded 0.38 and scored 2.75. Head-to-head, Alacranes de Durango have won 2 to Zapotlanejo's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 15, 2026, ending 0:3. The numbers (2.80 xG vs 0.91) point toward Alacranes de Durango. Alacranes de Durango in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Alacranes de Durango

Draws

Zapotlanejo

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Alacranes de Durango

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Alacranes de Durango has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Zapotlanejo.
Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Alacranes de Durango.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga Premier Serie A provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 47.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 68%

Zapotlanejo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alacranes de Durango	Zapotlanejo
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	21	7
Draws	6	2
Losses	4	21
Goals Scored	2.75	1.43
Goals Conceded	0.38	2.86
Expected Goals (xG)	2.75	1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.38	2.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Zapotlanejo vs Alacranes de Durango

Possession: 47% - 54% Cards: 0 - 1

0:3

Oct 25, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango vs Zapotlanejo

Possession: 42% - 44% Cards: 4 - 0

5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alacranes de Durango Compare

Top Goalscorer Torres J.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Parra Teran J. A.

2 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.12

Avg xA / game 1.38

Zapotlanejo Compare

Top Goalscorer Arias J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.3

Avg xA / game 0.79

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alacranes de Durango 95 / 100

Zapotlanejo 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alacranes de Durango Zapotlanejo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALA Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alacranes de Durango scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Zapotlanejo let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Alacranes de Durango went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Zapotlanejo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alacranes de Durango VS Zapotlanejo

2.75 Goals Scored 1.43

0.38 Goals Conceded 2.86

75% Over 1.5 86%

75% Over 2.5 86%

38% Over 3.5 57%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17