Sport Picks
Alajuelense vs Liberia
Costa Rica
Copa Costa Rica Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Chal J. In: Torres E.
Out: Chal J.
46'
46'
Sub
Huertas J. In: Johnson S.
Out: Huertas J.
51'
51'
Quesada E.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Liberia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Alajuelense lately — more wins on the board than Liberia.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Alajuelense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Liberia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 22%
Liberia Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alajuelense | Liberia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.56 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.12 | 1.3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 26, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Alajuelense
2:1
Feb 11, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Liberia vs Alajuelense
3:1
Feb 4, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Alajuelense vs Liberia
0:1
Jan 16, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Liberia
2:2
Dec 14, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Liberia
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alajuelense Compare
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Liberia Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernandez A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alajuelense 37 / 100
Liberia 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alajuelense Liberia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Liberia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alajuelense scored in 82% of their last 34 games.
Liberia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Alajuelense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alajuelense VS Liberia
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Alajuelense
(Home) 06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2 Saprissa
30 Aug
Zeledon
1 : 1 Alajuelense
27 Aug
Alajuelense
3 : 1 Plaza Amador
24 Aug
Alajuelense
0 : 1 San Carlos
21 Aug
Luis Angel Firpo
1 : 0 Alajuelense
Page 1 of 7
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2 Saprissa
27 Aug
Alajuelense
3 : 1 Plaza Amador
24 Aug
Alajuelense
0 : 1 San Carlos
15 Aug
Alajuelense
2 : 1 Puntarenas FC
02 Aug
Alajuelense
2 : 1 Escorpiones
Page 1 of 4
Liberia
(Away) 10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0 Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1 Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1 Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1 Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0 Cartagines
Page 1 of 6
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0 Liberia
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1 Liberia
12 Apr
Saprissa
1 : 2 Liberia
29 Mar
Saprissa
5 : 1 Liberia
21 Mar
Puntarenas FC
0 : 1 Liberia
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Alajuelense -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
ADR Cobano 4
Liberia 8
AD Rosario 1
ADR Jicaral 3
Saprissa -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Inter San Carlos 1
Carmelita 3
San Carlos 1
Cariari Pococi 2
Herediano -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quepos FC 2
Zeledon 5
Escorpiones 3
Puntarenas FC 4
Sporting FC 3
CS Uruguay 0
Aserri 5
Guadalupe 6
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cartagines -
1/8-finals
Alajuelense -
TBD -
Liberia 1
ADR Jicaral 0
Saprissa -
TBD -
Carmelita 3
Cariari Pococi 1
Herediano -
TBD -
Zeledon 1
Puntarenas FC 2
Sporting FC 7
Guadalupe 2
TBD -
Cartagines -
Quarter-finals
Alajuelense 1
Liberia 4
Saprissa 10
Carmelita 2
Herediano 1
Puntarenas FC 3
Sporting FC 6
Cartagines 2
Semi-finals
Liberia 2
Saprissa 6
Puntarenas FC 2
Sporting FC 3
Final
Saprissa 3
Sporting FC 1
