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Alajuelense vs Marathon

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela
Alajuelense Logo

Alajuelense

3 - 1
FT
Marathon Logo

Marathon

Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Moreno Y.
27' Event
Lucumi J.
Assist: Anor J.
32' Event
Cisneros R.
Assist: Sosa Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Alajuelense
20%
Draws
40%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Marathon have won more games recently than Alajuelense.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Alajuelense taking it.
  • Marathon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Alajuelense, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Alajuelense have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 14%
Marathon Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alajuelense Marathon
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 14
Draws 6 7
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.63 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Alajuelense vs Marathon
3:1
Sep 11, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Marathon vs Alajuelense
2:2
Aug 2, 2024 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Alajuelense vs Marathon
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucumi J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cisneros R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Messiniti N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alajuelense 35 / 100
Marathon 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alajuelense Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Alajuelense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Marathon conceded in 55% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Alajuelense VS Marathon
1.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alajuelense

(Home)
20 Sept
Alajuelense
5 : 0
Inter San Carlos
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
14 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 1
Alajuelense
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
Page 1 of 6

Marathon

(Away)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Olimpia 6
Luis Angel Firpo 0
Cartagines 5
Saprissa 4
Alajuelense 5
Marathon 3
Alianza FC 0
Motagua 3
Semi-finals
Olimpia -
Cartagines -
Alajuelense -
Motagua -
Final
TBD -
TBD -