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Aland United W vs Gnistan W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Finland Finland

Kansallinen Liiga Women Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn
Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Byrne K.
39'
Gurung D.
39' Event
Hagstrom M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Kansallinen Liiga Women game between Aland United W and Gnistan W finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aland United W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Aland United W
15%
Draws
0%
Gnistan W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aland United W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aland United W come out ahead of Gnistan W on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Aland United W taking it.
  • Regular Kansallinen Liiga Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Aland United W have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Aland United W Clean Sheet 20%
Gnistan W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aland United W Gnistan W
Matches Played 31 25
Wins 18 6
Draws 1 1
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 2.29 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.58 2.36
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Kansallinen Liiga Women
Aland United W vs Gnistan W
3:1
Aug 23, 2026 Kansallinen Liiga Women
Gnistan W vs Aland United W
2:3
May 31, 2026 Kansallinen Liiga Women
Gnistan W vs Aland United W
1:4
Mar 28, 2026 Kansallinen Liiga Women
Aland United W vs Gnistan W
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aland United W Compare

Top Goalscorer Pitko N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Veber V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Gnistan W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kraemer A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aland United W 85 / 100
Gnistan W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aland United W Gnistan W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aland United W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aland United W's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Gnistan W conceded in 84% of 25 recent games.

H2H data points to 5.25 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Gnistan W has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aland United W VS Gnistan W
2.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aland United W

(Home)
03 Oct
Aland United W
3 : 1
Gnistan W
26 Sept
HPS W
1 : 0
Aland United W
19 Sept
Ilves W
2 : 3
Aland United W
13 Sept
Aland United W
0 : 2
KuPS W
29 Aug
HJK W
2 : 1
Aland United W
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Gnistan W

(Away)
03 Oct
Aland United W
3 : 1
Gnistan W
26 Sept
Gnistan W
0 : 3
Ilves W
19 Sept
HJK W
6 : 1
Gnistan W
12 Sept
Gnistan W
1 : 3
HPS W
29 Aug
KuPS W
2 : 0
Gnistan W
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 HJK W 22 18 1 3 62:21 55
2 Aland United W 22 14 1 7 56:30 43
3 KuPS W 22 13 3 6 43:29 42
4 HPS W 22 12 5 5 34:25 41
5 Ilves W 22 8 2 12 39:45 26
6 Gnistan W 22 5 1 16 29:56 16
Promotion - UEFA Europa Cup Women 2027/2028 (Qualification)