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Alashkert vs Urartu

Armenia Armenia

Premier League 2025/2026 Alashkert Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Alashkert play Urartu in the Premier League 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Alashkert averaged 1.41 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Urartu averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. In past meetings, Alashkert won 2, Urartu won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 19, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Alashkert and 0.94 for Urartu. This points to a Alashkert double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Alashkert
20%
Draws
39%
Urartu
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alashkert

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Alashkert picked up more points recently compared to Urartu.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Alashkert Clean Sheet 24%
Urartu Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alashkert Urartu
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 14 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.41 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Premier League
Urartu vs Alashkert
1:3
Nov 29, 2025 Premier League
Alashkert vs Urartu
0:2
Aug 22, 2025 Premier League
Urartu vs Alashkert
0:1
Apr 11, 2025 Premier League
Alashkert vs Urartu
1:1
Dec 3, 2024 Premier League
Urartu vs Alashkert
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alashkert Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Urartu Compare

Top Goalscorer Melkonyan K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bruno Michel
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alashkert 42 / 100
Urartu 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alashkert Urartu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Alashkert or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Alashkert attacking → ← attacking Urartu

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alashkert scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Urartu let in goals in 59% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Alashkert went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Urartu lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 42
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ararat-Armenia27186350:2560
2Noah27168361:1956
3Pyunik Yerevan27174637:1855
4Alashkert27165642:2353
5Urartu27147643:2649
6Van27941427:4031
7BKMA274111230:4223
8FC Gandzasar27561620:4121
9Ararat Yerevan27342021:6313
10Shirak Gyumri27271817:5113