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Stadium Background

Alaves C vs Eibar C

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Uria I.
51' Event
Uria I.
56' Event
Iza O.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Alaves C and Eibar C finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alaves C.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Alaves C
15%
Draws
45%
Eibar C
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Eibar C

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Alaves C carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Alaves C have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Alaves C Clean Sheet 16%
Eibar C Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves C Eibar C
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.83 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Eibar C
3:1
Nov 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs Alaves C
2:5
Mar 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Eibar C
5:1
Oct 19, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs Alaves C
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves C Compare

Top Goalscorer Uria I.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Eibar C Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramos O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves C 31 / 100
Eibar C 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves C Eibar C

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Eibar C Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves C's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Eibar C's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Alaves C stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alaves C VS Eibar C
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves C

(Home)
09 May
Alaves C
1 : 2
Portugalete
03 May
San Ignacio
0 : 1
Alaves C
26 Apr
Alaves C
2 : 3
Derio
16 Apr
Touring KE
1 : 2
Alaves C
11 Apr
Alaves C
5 : 1
Zarautz KE
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Eibar C

(Away)
14 Aug
Eibar C
3 : 1
Santurtzi
09 May
Eibar C
3 : 0
Pasaia
03 May
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Eibar C
26 Apr
Eibar C
5 : 0
SD Deusto
17 Apr
Portugalete
4 : 2
Eibar C
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)