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Alaves C vs Padura

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Fernandez I.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 game between Alaves C and Padura finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alaves C.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Alaves C
15%
Draws
46%
Padura
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Padura

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Alaves C carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Alaves C Clean Sheet 21%
Padura Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves C Padura
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.78 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Padura
1:0
Sep 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs Alaves C
2:1
Feb 18, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Padura
0:2
Sep 30, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Padura vs Alaves C
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves C Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Padura Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves C 37 / 100
Padura 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves C Padura

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Padura Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves C found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

Padura has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Alaves C went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alaves C VS -
2.13 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves C

(Home)
22 Aug
Beasain
3 : 1
Alaves C
09 May
Alaves C
1 : 2
Portugalete
03 May
San Ignacio
0 : 1
Alaves C
26 Apr
Alaves C
2 : 3
Derio
16 Apr
Touring KE
1 : 2
Alaves C
Page 1 of 7

Padura

(Away)
11 May
Padura
3 : 0
San Viator
03 May
Derio
2 : 1
Padura
30 Apr
Eibar C
1 : 2
Padura
26 Apr
Portugalete
3 : 1
Padura
17 Apr
Padura
1 : 1
Santurtzi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Basconia 34 23 7 4 89:32 76
2 Portugalete 34 19 13 2 66:29 70
3 Leioa 34 20 6 8 55:34 66
4 Beasain 34 19 7 8 53:34 64
5 SD Deusto 34 15 9 10 43:35 54
6 Alaves C 34 14 6 14 41:41 48
7 Touring KE 34 13 9 12 39:45 48
8 Derio 34 12 11 11 39:39 47
9 Eibar C 34 12 10 12 46:51 46
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 12 8 14 40:45 44
11 Lagun Onak 34 11 9 14 44:49 42
12 San Ignacio 34 11 9 14 32:41 42
13 SCD Durango 34 9 13 12 43:37 40
14 Pasaia 34 10 9 15 45:60 39
15 Santurtzi 34 8 14 12 46:43 38
16 Urduliz FT 34 9 9 16 37:56 36
17 Padura 34 7 8 19 31:48 29
18 San Viator 34 1 5 28 21:91 8
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 (Play Offs)