Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Match Events

Rufo D.

22'

Rufo D.

71'

Lopez A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alaves C host Real Sociedad C in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Alaves C have averaged 2.13 scored and 1.38 conceded recently, against Real Sociedad C's 2 scored and 1.25 conceded. Head-to-head, Alaves C have won 1 to Real Sociedad C's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 7, 2026, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.69 xG vs 1.69) point toward Alaves C. Over markets look the better angle than the result itself.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Alaves C

11%

Draws

80%

Real Sociedad C

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Real Sociedad C

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Real Sociedad C has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Alaves C.
Model forecasts a 80% win probability edge for Real Sociedad C.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Tercera RFEF - Group 4 provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Alaves C Clean Sheet 13%

Real Sociedad C Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alaves C	Real Sociedad C
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	14	15
Draws	8	4
Losses	8	11
Goals Scored	2.13	2
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Alaves C vs Real Sociedad C

Possession: 49% - 43% Cards: 1 - 3

3:0

Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Real Sociedad C vs Alaves C

Possession: 51% - 41% Cards: 0 - 2

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves C Compare

Top Goalscorer Rufo D.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Lopez A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

Real Sociedad C Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves C 11 / 100

Real Sociedad C 86 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alaves C Real Sociedad C

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RSO Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves C scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Real Sociedad C let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Alaves C went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Real Sociedad C lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alaves C VS Real Sociedad C

2.13 Goals Scored 2

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25

100% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 63%

50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	70:29	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	50:34	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	54:40	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	54:34	57
5	Touring KE	34	16	9	9	47:35	57
6	Real Sociedad C	34	17	4	13	48:39	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	37:27	55
8	Aurrera de Vitoria	34	16	6	12	42:41	54
9	Alaves C	34	15	8	11	57:40	53
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	56:61	45
11	SCD Durango	34	11	11	12	35:36	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	32:45	39
13	Eibar C	34	9	9	16	44:53	36
14	Pasaia	34	9	9	16	26:46	36
15	Anorga	34	11	4	19	37:59	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	42:59	33
17	Zarautz KE	34	8	6	20	30:60	30
18	SD Deusto	34	6	7	21	26:49	25