Sport Picks
Alaves vs Ath Bilbao Prediction & H2H Stats
Spain
LaLiga 2025/2026 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz 
Match Events
8'
8'
Blanco A.
Assist: Perez A.
28'
28'
Martinez T.
41'
41'
Valverde E.
AI Match Summary
Ath Bilbao in this LaLiga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ath Bilbao.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
30%
43%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ath Bilbao
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Ath Bilbao at 1.62 per game, Alaves at 1.59.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Alaves Clean Sheet 21%
Ath Bilbao Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alaves | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 1.62 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 LaLiga
Ath Bilbao vs Alaves
0:0
May 2, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Ath Bilbao
2:4
Sep 13, 2025 LaLiga
Ath Bilbao vs Alaves
0:1
Jul 22, 2025 Club Friendly
Alaves vs Ath Bilbao
1:0
May 11, 2025 LaLiga
Ath Bilbao vs Alaves
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alaves Compare
Top Goalscorer Blanco A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Tenaglia N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Ath Bilbao Compare
Top Goalscorer Williams N.
2 Goals Assists Leader Navarro R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alaves 32 / 100
Ath Bilbao 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alaves Ath Bilbao
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ath Bilbao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alaves scored in 86% of their last 29 games.
Ath Bilbao let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.
Alaves went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alaves VS Ath Bilbao
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Alaves
(Home) 19 Sept
Ath Bilbao
0 : 0 Alaves
15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1 Valencia
12 Sept
Racing Santander
2 : 1 Alaves
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2 Osasuna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0 Villarreal
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1 Valencia
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2 Osasuna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0 Villarreal
15 Aug
Alaves
3 : 0 Getafe
31 Jul
Alaves
3 : 0 Castellon
Page 1 of 3
Ath Bilbao
(Away) 02 Oct
Real Sociedad
0 : 1 Ath Bilbao
19 Sept
Ath Bilbao
0 : 0 Alaves
12 Sept
Ath Bilbao
1 : 1 Elche
05 Sept
Ath Bilbao
3 : 0 Atl. Madrid
30 Aug
Celta Vigo
0 : 2 Ath Bilbao
Page 1 of 6
02 Oct
Real Sociedad
0 : 1 Ath Bilbao
30 Aug
Celta Vigo
0 : 2 Ath Bilbao
27 Aug
Barcelona
2 : 0 Ath Bilbao
21 Aug
Zaragoza
3 : 1 Ath Bilbao
14 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0 Ath Bilbao
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95:36 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77:35 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72:46 | 72 |
| 4 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62:44 | 69 |
| 5 | Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59:48 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53:48 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32:38 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41:44 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46:55 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59:61 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43:55 | 46 |
| 12 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43:58 | 45 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46:60 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44:56 | 43 |
| 15 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49:57 | 43 |
| 16 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:61 | 42 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44:50 | 42 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:57 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39:55 | 41 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26:60 | 29 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 (Main)
