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Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain Spain

LaLiga Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Boye L.
Assist: Diaz M.
36' Event
Diaz M.
Assist: Sivera A.
46' Event
Budimir A.
Assist: Gomez M.

AI Match Summary

Alaves in this LaLiga matchup, with the score ending 5-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alaves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Alaves
20%
Draws
29%
Osasuna
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alaves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Osasuna haven't matched Alaves's recent run of results.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Alaves taking it.
  • Regular LaLiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Alaves Clean Sheet 68%
Osasuna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves Osasuna
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 11 10
Draws 9 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.59 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Osasuna
5:2
Apr 5, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Osasuna
2:2
Dec 20, 2025 LaLiga
Osasuna vs Alaves
3:0
May 24, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Osasuna
1:1
Dec 8, 2024 LaLiga
Osasuna vs Alaves
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Boye L.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Diaz M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Osasuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Budimir A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves 95 / 100
Osasuna 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves Osasuna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Osasuna has conceded goals in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Alaves stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alaves VS Osasuna
2 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves

(Home)
19 Sept
Ath Bilbao
0 : 0
Alaves
15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1
Valencia
12 Sept
Racing Santander
2 : 1
Alaves
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2
Osasuna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0
Villarreal
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Osasuna

(Away)
19 Sept
Osasuna
1 : 1
Rayo Vallecano
16 Sept
Atl. Madrid
4 : 0
Osasuna
12 Sept
Osasuna
0 : 2
Espanyol
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2
Osasuna
31 Aug
Osasuna
1 : 0
Getafe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barcelona 7 7 0 0 31:7 21
2 Atl. Madrid 7 5 1 1 16:7 16
3 Betis 7 5 1 1 9:7 16
4 Real Madrid 7 5 0 2 18:8 15
5 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 10:9 13
6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 11:6 11
7 Dep. A Coruna 7 2 4 1 10:8 10
8 Real Sociedad 7 3 1 3 9:13 10
9 Villarreal 7 2 2 3 13:12 8
10 Ath Bilbao 6 2 2 2 7:6 8
11 Getafe 7 2 2 3 4:7 8
12 Rayo Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11:16 8
13 Osasuna 7 2 2 3 6:13 8
14 Celta Vigo 7 1 4 2 8:6 7
15 Espanyol 7 2 1 4 10:10 7
16 Racing Santander 7 2 1 4 11:21 7
17 Levante 6 1 2 3 8:12 5
18 Elche 7 1 2 4 11:17 5
19 Valencia 7 1 1 5 4:13 4
20 Malaga 7 0 3 4 3:12 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)