Sport Picks

Spain

LaLiga 2025/2026 Estadio Mendizorrotza

Alaves

1 - 2

Rayo Vallecano

Our Tip

Match Events

13'

Martinez T.

33'

Sub

Parada V. In: Protesoni C.

Out: Parada V.

38'

Sub

Martin C. In: Camello S.

Out: Martin C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The LaLiga 2025/2026 game between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rayo Vallecano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Alaves

44%

Draws

20%

Rayo Vallecano

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Rayo Vallecano come out ahead of Alaves on wins alone.
44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
Regular LaLiga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
These two have met 5 times recently and Rayo Vallecano have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Alaves Clean Sheet 19%

Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alaves	Rayo Vallecano
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	10	14
Draws	7	7
Losses	12	9
Goals Scored	1.13	1.25
Goals Conceded	1.25	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 LaLiga

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

Possession: 41% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Jan 14, 2026 Copa del Rey

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

Possession: 48% - 47% Cards: 1 - 1

2:0

Oct 26, 2025 LaLiga

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

Possession: 49% - 53% Cards: 4 - 1

1:0

Mar 29, 2025 LaLiga

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

Possession: 46% - 43% Cards: 0 - 0

0:2

Oct 26, 2024 LaLiga

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

Possession: 41% - 45% Cards: 4 - 1

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Rayo Vallecano Compare

Top Goalscorer Camello S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Nteka R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves 36 / 100

Rayo Vallecano 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alaves Rayo Vallecano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RAY Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Rayo Vallecano conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Alaves remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Alaves VS Rayo Vallecano

1.13 Goals Scored 1.25

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25

63% Over 1.5 63%

50% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	95:36	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	77:35	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	72:46	72
4	Atl. Madrid	38	21	6	11	62:44	69
5	Betis	38	15	15	8	59:48	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	53:48	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	32:38	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	41:44	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	46:55	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	59:61	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	43:55	46
12	Ath Bilbao	38	13	6	19	43:58	45
13	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	46:60	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	44:56	43
15	Elche	38	10	13	15	49:57	43
16	Levante	38	11	9	18	47:61	42
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	44:50	42
18	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	47:57	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	39:55	41
20	Real Oviedo	38	6	11	21	26:60	29