Sport Picks
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
Spain
LaLiga 2025/2026 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz 
Match Events
13'
13'
Martinez T.
33'
33'
Sub
Parada V. In: Protesoni C.
Out: Parada V.
38'
38'
Sub
Martin C. In: Camello S.
Out: Martin C.
AI Match Summary
The LaLiga 2025/2026 game between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rayo Vallecano.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Alaves come out ahead of Rayo Vallecano on wins alone.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on Alaves taking it.
- Regular LaLiga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Alaves Clean Sheet 68%
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alaves | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.38 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 20, 2026 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
1:1
May 23, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
1:2
Jan 14, 2026 Copa del Rey
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
1:0
Mar 29, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alaves Compare
Top Goalscorer Martinez T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19
Rayo Vallecano Compare
Top Goalscorer Camello S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Nteka R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alaves 86 / 100
Rayo Vallecano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alaves Rayo Vallecano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alaves Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alaves's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Rayo Vallecano let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Solid form: Alaves remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Alaves VS Rayo Vallecano
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Alaves
(Home) 15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1 Valencia
12 Sept
Racing Santander
2 : 1 Alaves
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2 Osasuna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0 Villarreal
20 Aug
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 1 Alaves
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1 Valencia
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2 Osasuna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0 Villarreal
15 Aug
Alaves
3 : 0 Getafe
31 Jul
Alaves
3 : 0 Castellon
Page 1 of 4
Rayo Vallecano
(Away) 15 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 1 Espanyol
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
05 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 2 Racing Santander
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
20 Aug
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 1 Alaves
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
15 Aug
Sevilla
2 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
08 Aug
Ipswich
3 : 0 Rayo Vallecano
01 Aug
Charleroi
2 : 3 Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95:36 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77:35 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72:46 | 72 |
| 4 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62:44 | 69 |
| 5 | Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59:48 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53:48 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32:38 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41:44 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46:55 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59:61 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43:55 | 46 |
| 12 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43:58 | 45 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46:60 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44:56 | 43 |
| 15 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49:57 | 43 |
| 16 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:61 | 42 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44:50 | 42 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:57 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39:55 | 41 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26:60 | 29 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 (Main)
