Sport Picks

Alaves vs Real Sociedad Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain

Copa del Rey 2025/2026 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Alaves

2 - 3

Real Sociedad

Our Tip

Match Events

Rebbach A.

Assist: Manas A.

15'

Oyarzabal M.

Assist: Guedes G.

28'

Turrientes B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-3, with Real Sociedad advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Alaves

20%

Draws

40%

Real Sociedad

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence

Alaves carry the better recent record into this one.
40% — that's where the model lands on Alaves taking it.
Alaves have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Alaves, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39.2%

Alaves Clean Sheet 68%

Real Sociedad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alaves	Real Sociedad
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	12	11
Draws	9	7
Losses	9	13
Goals Scored	1.6	1.58
Goals Conceded	1.4	1.74
Expected Goals (xG)	1.94	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 LaLiga

Real Sociedad vs Alaves

3:3

Feb 4, 2026 Copa del Rey

Alaves vs Real Sociedad

2:3

Dec 6, 2025 LaLiga

Alaves vs Real Sociedad

1:0

Apr 23, 2025 LaLiga

Alaves vs Real Sociedad

1:0

Aug 28, 2024 LaLiga

Real Sociedad vs Alaves

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Rebbach A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.49

Avg xA / game 0.97

Real Sociedad Compare

Top Goalscorer Oyarzabal M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Guedes G.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves 59 / 100

Real Sociedad 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alaves Real Sociedad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Real Sociedad let in goals in 87% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Alaves stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alaves VS Real Sociedad

2 Goals Scored 1.13

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88

75% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves

(Home)

19 Sept

Ath Bilbao

0 : 0

Alaves

15 Sept

Alaves

0 : 1

Valencia

12 Sept

Racing Santander

2 : 1

Alaves

06 Sept

Alaves

5 : 2

Osasuna

28 Aug

Alaves

1 : 0

Villarreal

Page 1 of 6

Real Sociedad

(Away)

20 Sept

Valencia

2 : 3

Real Sociedad

17 Sept

Real Sociedad

1 : 2

Bournemouth

13 Sept

Real Sociedad

0 : 3

Atl. Madrid

07 Sept

Elche

2 : 3

Real Sociedad

03 Sept

Real Sociedad

0 : 0

Celta Vigo

Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Mutilvera -

TBD -

Zaragoza -

Atletico Tordesillas -

TBD -

Burgos CF -

Navalcarnero -

TBD -

AD Merida -

Inter de Valdemoro 4

Univ. Julio Suarez 2

TBD -

Getafe -

Atletico Astorga -

TBD -

Mirandes -

Caudal Deportivo -

TBD -

Gijon -

Puente Genil -

TBD -

FC Cartagena SAD -

Sporting Ceuta 1

Maracena 3

TBD -

Valencia -

CD Tropezon -

TBD -

Leonesa -

Valle Egues -

TBD -

FC Andorra -

Ciudad Cieza -

TBD -

Cordoba -

Orihuela -

TBD -

Levante -

Ourense CF -

TBD -

Real Oviedo -

Constancia -

TBD -

Girona -

TBD -

Ath Bilbao -

Portugalete -

TBD -

Valladolid -

Deportivo Getxo 2

Betis Valladolid 1

TBD -

Alaves -

CD Extremadura -

TBD -

Las Palmas -

Toledo -

TBD -

Sevilla -

RSD Alcala -

TBD -

Tenerife -

Roda -

TBD -

Granada CF -

Real Avila -

TBD -

Real Aviles -

Campanario 0

CD Yuncos 2

TBD -

Rayo Vallecano -

Jaen -

TBD -

Eldense -

Lorca Deportiva -

TBD -

Almeria -

Reus FC Reddis -

TBD -

CE Europa -

Textil Escudo 2

SD Negreira 5

TBD -

Real Sociedad -

Langreo -

TBD -

Racing Club Ferrol -

Utebo FC -

TBD -

Huesca -

Ebro -

TBD -

Tarazona -

CD Sant Jordi 4

CD Lourdes 1

TBD -

Osasuna -

CD Azuaga -

TBD -

Leganes -

UD San Fernando -

TBD -

Albacete -

Sant Andreu -

TBD -

Teruel -

Puerto de Vega 5

CCD Alberite 1

TBD -

Celta Vigo -

Rayo Majadahonda -

TBD -

CF Talavera -

CD Estepona -

TBD -

Malaga -

TBD -

Real Madrid -

UD Logrones -

TBD -

Ponferradina -

SD Logrones -

TBD -

Racing Santander -

Antoniano -

TBD -

Castellon -

Ciudad de Lucena -

TBD -

Villarreal -

Guadalajara -

TBD -

Cacereno -

La Union (Malacitano) -

TBD -

AD Ceuta -

TBD -

Barcelona -

Murcia -

TBD -

Antequera -

UCAM Murcia -

TBD -

Cadiz -

Torrent -

TBD -

Torremolinos -

Atletico Melilla 0

Atletico Palma del Rio 10

TBD -

Betis -

UD Ourense -

TBD -

Pontevedra -

Naxara -

TBD -

Eibar -

Quintanar del Rey -

TBD -

UD Ibiza -

Manises 2

UD Los Garres 4

TBD -

Elche -

UD Poblense -

TBD -

Sabadell -

UD Samano -

TBD -

Dep. A Coruna -

Numancia -

TBD -

Arenas Getxo -

Atletic Sant Just FC 7

Atletico Calatayud 1

TBD -

Mallorca -

Baleares -

TBD -

Gimnastic de Tarragona -

CE Atletic Lleida -

TBD -

Espanyol -

TBD -

Atl. Madrid -

1/64-finals

Mutilvera 1

Zaragoza 3

Atletico Tordesillas 1

Burgos CF 2

Navalcarnero 2

AD Merida 1

Inter de Valdemoro 0

Getafe 11

Atletico Astorga 1

Mirandes 2

Caudal Deportivo 0

Gijon 1

Puente Genil 0

FC Cartagena SAD 1

Maracena 0

Valencia 5

CD Tropezon 1

Leonesa 3

Valle Egues 1

FC Andorra 5

Ciudad Cieza 1

Cordoba 0

Orihuela 3

Levante 4

Ourense CF 4

Real Oviedo 2

Constancia 2

Girona 3

TBD -

Ath Bilbao -

Portugalete 1

Valladolid 0

Deportivo Getxo 0

Alaves 7

CD Extremadura 3

Las Palmas 1

Toledo 1

Sevilla 4

RSD Alcala 0

Tenerife 4

Roda 1

Granada CF 5

Real Avila 1

Real Aviles 0

CD Yuncos 1

Rayo Vallecano 6

Jaen 1

Eldense 3

Lorca Deportiva 0

Almeria 2

Reus FC Reddis 3

CE Europa 2

SD Negreira 0

Real Sociedad 3

Langreo 0

Racing Club Ferrol 1

Utebo FC 0

Huesca 3

Ebro 2

Tarazona 1

CD Sant Jordi 0

Osasuna 5

CD Azuaga 1

Leganes 4

UD San Fernando 0

Albacete 3

Sant Andreu 2

Teruel 1

Puerto de Vega 0

Celta Vigo 2

Rayo Majadahonda 1

CF Talavera 4

CD Estepona 1

Malaga 3

TBD -

Real Madrid -

UD Logrones 1

Ponferradina 3

SD Logrones 0

Racing Santander 4

Antoniano 1

Castellon 0

Ciudad de Lucena 0

Villarreal 6

Guadalajara 2

Cacereno 1

La Union (Malacitano) 0

AD Ceuta 2

TBD -

Barcelona -

Murcia 2

Antequera 1

UCAM Murcia 1

Cadiz 3

Torrent 3

Torremolinos 1

Atletico Palma del Rio 1

Betis 7

UD Ourense 1

Pontevedra 2

Naxara 2

Eibar 4

Quintanar del Rey 2

UD Ibiza 1

UD Los Garres 0

Elche 4

UD Poblense 1

Sabadell 2

UD Samano 1

Dep. A Coruna 5

Numancia 3

Arenas Getxo 0

Atletic Sant Just FC 0

Mallorca 2

Baleares 2

Gimnastic de Tarragona 0

CE Atletic Lleida 1

Espanyol 2

TBD -

Atl. Madrid -

1/32-finals

Zaragoza 0

Burgos CF 1

Navalcarnero 2

Getafe 3

Mirandes 0

Gijon 2

FC Cartagena SAD 1

Valencia 2

Leonesa 4

FC Andorra 2

Ciudad Cieza 0

Levante 1

Ourense CF 2

Girona 1

TBD -

Ath Bilbao -

Portugalete 0

Alaves 3

CD Extremadura 1

Sevilla 2

Tenerife 0

Granada CF 1

Real Avila 1

Rayo Vallecano 2

Eldense 2

Almeria 1

Reus FC Reddis 0

Real Sociedad 2

Racing Club Ferrol 0

Huesca 2

Ebro 3

Osasuna 5

Leganes 1

Albacete 2

Sant Andreu 1

Celta Vigo 2

CF Talavera 2

Malaga 1

TBD -

Real Madrid -

Ponferradina 1

Racing Santander 2

Antoniano 1

Villarreal 2

Guadalajara 1

AD Ceuta 0

TBD -

Barcelona -

Murcia 3

Cadiz 2

Torrent 1

Betis 4

Pontevedra 0

Eibar 3

Quintanar del Rey 1

Elche 2

Sabadell 0

Dep. A Coruna 2

Numancia 2

Mallorca 3

Baleares 1

Espanyol 0

TBD -

Atl. Madrid -

1/16-finals

Burgos CF 3

Getafe 1

Gijon 0

Valencia 2

Leonesa 1

Levante 0

Ourense CF 0

Ath Bilbao 1

Alaves 1

Sevilla 0

Granada CF 1

Rayo Vallecano 3

Eldense 1

Real Sociedad 2

Huesca 2

Osasuna 4

Albacete 3

Celta Vigo 2

CF Talavera 2

Real Madrid 3

Racing Santander 2

Villarreal 1

Guadalajara 0

Barcelona 2

Murcia 0

Betis 2

Eibar 0

Elche 1

Dep. A Coruna 1

Mallorca 0

Baleares 2

Atl. Madrid 3

1/8-finals

Burgos CF 0

Valencia 2

Leonesa 3

Ath Bilbao 4

Alaves 2

Rayo Vallecano 0

Real Sociedad 3

Osasuna 2

Albacete 3

Real Madrid 2

Racing Santander 0

Barcelona 2

Betis 2

Elche 1

Dep. A Coruna 0

Atl. Madrid 1

Quarter-finals

Albacete 1

Barcelona 2

Betis 0

Atl. Madrid 5

Valencia 1

Ath Bilbao 2

Alaves 2

Real Sociedad 3

Semi-finals

Barcelona 3

Atl. Madrid 4

Ath Bilbao 0

Real Sociedad 2

Final

Atl. Madrid 2

Real Sociedad 3

Alaves vs Real Sociedad Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain

Alaves

Real Sociedad

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Alaves Compare

Real Sociedad Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves

Real Sociedad

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Install Sokapicks PWA