Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alaves vs Valencia

Spain Spain

LaLiga Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Danjuma A.
21'
Guerra J.
21'
Blanco A.

AI Match Summary

The LaLiga game between Alaves and Valencia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valencia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Alaves
15%
Draws
26%
Valencia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alaves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Valencia haven't matched Alaves's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Alaves's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Alaves Clean Sheet 68%
Valencia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves Valencia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 12
Draws 8 4
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.7 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Valencia
0:1
Mar 8, 2026 LaLiga
Valencia vs Alaves
3:2
Oct 20, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Valencia
0:0
May 14, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Valencia
1:0
Dec 22, 2024 LaLiga
Valencia vs Alaves
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Valencia Compare

Top Goalscorer Rioja L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves 95 / 100
Valencia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves Valencia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Valencia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Alaves has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alaves VS Valencia
2 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves

(Home)
15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1
Valencia
12 Sept
Racing Santander
2 : 1
Alaves
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2
Osasuna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0
Villarreal
20 Aug
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 1
Alaves
Page 1 of 6

Valencia

(Away)
15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1
Valencia
11 Sept
Sevilla
1 : 0
Valencia
06 Sept
Valencia
0 : 5
Barcelona
30 Aug
Dep. A Coruna
3 : 1
Valencia
25 Aug
Valencia
0 : 1
Betis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barcelona 6 6 0 0 28:6 18
2 Real Madrid 6 5 0 1 17:6 15
3 Betis 6 5 0 1 8:6 15
4 Atl. Madrid 6 4 1 1 14:6 13
5 Sevilla 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
6 Alaves 6 3 1 2 11:6 10
7 Dep. A Coruna 6 2 3 1 9:7 9
8 Espanyol 6 2 1 3 9:7 7
9 Ath Bilbao 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Racing Santander 6 2 1 3 11:16 7
11 Rayo Vallecano 6 2 1 3 10:15 7
12 Real Sociedad 6 2 1 3 6:11 7
13 Osasuna 6 2 1 3 5:12 7
14 Villarreal 6 1 2 3 10:11 5
15 Levante 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
16 Getafe 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
17 Celta Vigo 6 0 4 2 3:6 4
18 Valencia 6 1 1 4 2:10 4
19 Malaga 6 0 3 3 3:11 3
20 Elche 6 0 2 4 8:16 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)