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Alaves vs Valencia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

LaLiga Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Danjuma A.
21'
Guerra J.
21'
Blanco A.

AI Match Summary

The LaLiga game between Alaves and Valencia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valencia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Alaves
35%
Draws
46%
Valencia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Valencia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Valencia have managed 1.24 goals a game lately — Alaves are scoring more at 1.48.
  • Win probability leans Valencia's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Alaves Clean Sheet 16%
Valencia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves Valencia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 9 6
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.48 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Valencia
0:1
Mar 8, 2026 LaLiga
Valencia vs Alaves
3:2
Oct 20, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Valencia
0:0
May 14, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Valencia
1:0
Dec 22, 2024 LaLiga
Valencia vs Alaves
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Valencia Compare

Top Goalscorer Rioja L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves 19 / 100
Valencia 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves Valencia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valencia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Valencia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Alaves has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alaves VS Valencia
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves

(Home)
06 Nov
Sevilla
0 : 0
Alaves
31 Oct
Barcelona
6 : 1
Alaves
23 Oct
Alaves
1 : 1
Malaga
18 Oct
Celta Vigo
2 : 1
Alaves
10 Oct
Alaves
1 : 2
Atl. Madrid
Page 1 of 6

Valencia

(Away)
01 Nov
Elche
0 : 1
Valencia
24 Oct
Valencia
1 : 2
Villarreal
17 Oct
Valencia
0 : 0
Ath Bilbao
11 Oct
Racing Santander
2 : 2
Valencia
20 Sept
Valencia
2 : 3
Real Sociedad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barcelona 11 10 0 1 46:12 30
2 Atl. Madrid 11 9 1 1 22:8 28
3 Real Madrid 11 9 0 2 28:10 27
4 Betis 11 7 2 2 18:15 23
5 Real Sociedad 11 6 1 4 20:20 19
6 Sevilla 12 5 3 4 17:19 18
7 Ath Bilbao 10 4 3 3 14:10 15
8 Dep. A Coruna 11 3 5 3 15:14 14
9 Alaves 12 3 4 5 15:17 13
10 Villarreal 11 3 3 5 15:15 12
11 Celta Vigo 11 2 6 3 10:10 12
12 Rayo Vallecano 10 3 3 4 15:20 12
13 Getafe 11 3 3 5 8:16 12
14 Espanyol 11 3 2 6 13:14 11
15 Osasuna 11 3 2 6 11:22 11
16 Racing Santander 11 3 2 6 15:29 11
17 Elche 11 2 4 5 14:18 10
18 Levante 11 2 4 5 16:21 10
19 Valencia 11 2 3 6 8:17 9
20 Malaga 11 0 5 6 8:21 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)