Sport Picks
Alaves vs Villarreal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
LaLiga Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz 
Match Events
31'
31'
Boye L.
Assist: Perez A.
45'
45'
Sanchez Flores Q.
48'
48'
Rebbach A.
AI Match Summary
Alaves in this LaLiga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alaves.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
20%
60%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Villarreal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
60%
/ High Confidence
- Alaves haven't matched Villarreal's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Villarreal's way, sitting at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Alaves Clean Sheet 13%
Villarreal Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alaves | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 10 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.54 | 1.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.54 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 28, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Villarreal
1:0
Mar 13, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Villarreal
1:1
Jan 10, 2026 LaLiga
Villarreal vs Alaves
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Villarreal
1:0
Nov 9, 2024 LaLiga
Villarreal vs Alaves
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alaves Compare
Top Goalscorer Boye L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Villarreal Compare
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alaves 27 / 100
Villarreal 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alaves Villarreal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Villarreal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Alaves scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.
Villarreal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Villarreal lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alaves VS Villarreal
0.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Alaves
(Home) 31 Oct
Barcelona
6 : 1 Alaves
23 Oct
Alaves
1 : 1 Malaga
18 Oct
Celta Vigo
2 : 1 Alaves
10 Oct
Alaves
1 : 2 Atl. Madrid
19 Sept
Ath Bilbao
0 : 0 Alaves
Page 1 of 6
23 Oct
Alaves
1 : 1 Malaga
10 Oct
Alaves
1 : 2 Atl. Madrid
15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1 Valencia
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2 Osasuna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0 Villarreal
Page 1 of 3
Villarreal
(Away) 03 Nov
Villarreal
0 : 6 PSG
30 Oct
Villarreal
0 : 1 Espanyol
27 Oct
Manacor
0 : 5 Villarreal
24 Oct
Valencia
1 : 2 Villarreal
20 Oct
Liverpool
4 : 3 Villarreal
Page 1 of 6
27 Oct
Manacor
0 : 5 Villarreal
24 Oct
Valencia
1 : 2 Villarreal
20 Oct
Liverpool
4 : 3 Villarreal
10 Oct
Real Madrid
1 : 0 Villarreal
17 Sept
Malaga
1 : 3 Villarreal
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 | Atl. Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 | Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Ath Bilbao | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 | Dep. A Coruna | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 | Levante | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
