Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alaves vs Villarreal

Spain Spain

LaLiga Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Boye L.
Assist: Perez A.
45'
Sanchez Flores Q.
48'
Rebbach A.

AI Match Summary

Alaves in this LaLiga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alaves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Alaves
30%
Draws
9%
Villarreal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alaves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Alaves haven't matched Villarreal's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Alaves's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Alaves Clean Sheet 20%
Villarreal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves Villarreal
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 12 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.74 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Villarreal
1:0
Mar 13, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Villarreal
1:1
Jan 10, 2026 LaLiga
Villarreal vs Alaves
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Villarreal
1:0
Nov 9, 2024 LaLiga
Villarreal vs Alaves
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Boye L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Villarreal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves 85 / 100
Villarreal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves Villarreal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Alaves scored in 93% of their last 27 outings.

Villarreal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

Alaves has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Alaves VS Villarreal
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves

(Home)
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2
Osasuna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0
Villarreal
20 Aug
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 1
Alaves
15 Aug
Alaves
3 : 0
Getafe
07 Aug
Racing Santander
1 : 2
Alaves
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Villarreal

(Away)
08 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 2
Villarreal
05 Sept
Villarreal
2 : 3
Dep. A Coruna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0
Villarreal
23 Aug
Atl. Madrid
2 : 2
Villarreal
16 Aug
Racing Santander
2 : 2
Villarreal
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barcelona 4 4 0 0 17:2 12
2 Real Madrid 5 4 0 1 14:4 12
3 Alaves 5 3 1 1 11:5 10
4 Sevilla 5 3 1 1 8:6 10
5 Betis 4 3 0 1 5:5 9
6 Dep. A Coruna 4 2 2 0 8:5 8
7 Espanyol 5 2 1 2 8:5 7
8 Atl. Madrid 4 2 1 1 7:6 7
9 Ath Bilbao 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Racing Santander 5 2 1 2 9:9 7
11 Real Sociedad 5 2 1 2 6:8 7
12 Osasuna 5 2 1 2 5:8 7
13 Levante 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
14 Getafe 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
15 Rayo Vallecano 5 1 1 3 8:14 4
16 Celta Vigo 5 0 3 2 2:5 3
17 Villarreal 4 0 2 2 6:8 2
18 Malaga 4 0 2 2 1:7 2
19 Elche 5 0 2 3 6:13 2
20 Valencia 5 0 1 4 1:10 1
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)