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Alaves W vs Levante W

Spain Spain

Copa de la Reina Women Estadio Mendizorrotza
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Alaves W enters this Copa de la Reina Women fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 73%. Alaves W averages 1.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in recent matches. Levante W shows a form average of 0.6 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Alaves W, 3 wins for Levante W, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 05.11.25 ended in a 4:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.63 for Alaves W and 0.38 for Levante W, suggesting the primary value lies in the Alaves W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Alaves W
15%
Draws
12%
Levante W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alaves W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Alaves W picked up more points recently compared to Levante W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Alaves W Clean Sheet 32%
Levante W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves W Levante W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 19 2
Draws 5 3
Losses 6 25
Goals Scored 1.73 0.57
Goals Conceded 0.8 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

05.11.25 Copa de la Reina Women
Alaves W vs Levante W
4:0
04.02.23 Liga F Women
Alaves W vs Levante W
0:2
02.11.22 Liga F Women
Levante W vs Alaves W
2:1
30.03.22 Liga F Women
Levante W vs Alaves W
3:0
19.12.21 Liga F Women
Alaves W vs Levante W
1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Alaves W

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Levante W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves W Compare

Top Goalscorer Guallar A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sobron C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Levante W Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves W 72 / 100
Levante W 13 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves W Levante W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Alaves W & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +12.4%
1.54
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Alaves W is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Alaves W 80%
Levante W 10%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Levante W will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Alaves W's attacks.

Alaves W 69%
Levante W 13%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Alaves W to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Alaves W 73%
Levante W 12%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Alaves W vary their attacking width.

Alaves W 77%
Levante W 11%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Levante W, allowing Alaves W's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Alaves W 66%
Levante W 13%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Alaves W, while Levante W takes risks to salvage a result.

Alaves W 84%
Levante W 14%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Alaves W attacking → ← attacking Levante W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves W have found the net in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Levante W have conceded at least one goal in 97% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.80 goals per match.

Alaves W remained undefeated in 5 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Levante W suffered defeat in 4 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Knockout cup fixture where progress is the sole objective; expect high motivation and potential extra time drama.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

62 Points in last 5 9
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.25
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63