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Alay Osh vs Alga Bishkek

Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan

Premier Liga 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Alay Osh play Alga Bishkek in the Premier Liga 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Alay Osh averaged 1.48 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Alga Bishkek averaged 1.61 goals scored and 0.96 conceded. In past meetings, Alay Osh won 2, Alga Bishkek won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Alay Osh and 1.56 for Alga Bishkek. This points to a Alga Bishkek double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Alay Osh
35%
Draws
35%
Alga Bishkek
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Alga Bishkek

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Alay Osh picked up more points recently compared to Alga Bishkek.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Alay Osh Clean Sheet 15%
Alga Bishkek Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alay Osh Alga Bishkek
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 13
Draws 8 9
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.48 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Premier Liga
Alga Bishkek vs Alay Osh
0:0
Oct 6, 2025 Premier Liga
Alay Osh vs Alga Bishkek
1:1
Apr 11, 2025 Premier Liga
Alga Bishkek vs Alay Osh
1:2
Nov 2, 2024 Premier Liga
Alga Bishkek vs Alay Osh
1:2
Jul 6, 2024 Premier Liga
Alga Bishkek vs Alay Osh
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alay Osh Compare

Top Goalscorer Zinkevych O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Alga Bishkek Compare

Top Goalscorer Senitsky Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alay Osh 30 / 100
Alga Bishkek 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alay Osh Alga Bishkek

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Alga Bishkek or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Alay Osh attacking → ← attacking Alga Bishkek

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alay Osh scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Alga Bishkek let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Alay Osh went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Alga Bishkek lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 48
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Bars26194351:2161
2Muras United26193459:2460
3Abdysh-Ata Kant26173647:2954
4Dordoi Bishkek26166442:2754
5Alay Osh26154744:2649
6Aldier26126839:3242
7Ozgon261051133:2735
8Talant261021431:3732
9Neftchi Kochkor-Ata26751433:4026
10Kyrgyzaltyn26741522:4925
11Alga Bishkek26661427:3724
12Ilbirs26561523:4721
13Bishkek City26541726:4819
14Asiagoal Bishkek26422024:5714