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Albania vs San Marino - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Air Albania Stadium, Tirana
Albania Logo

Albania

2 - 1
FT
San Marino Logo

San Marino

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Asllani K.
38'
Fabbri F.
46'
Sub
Muci E. In: Mehmeti A.
Out: Muci E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League game between Albania and San Marino finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Albania.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Albania
15%
Draws
0%
San Marino
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Albania

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Albania carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Albania taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Albania here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Albania Clean Sheet 20%
San Marino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Albania San Marino
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 2
Draws 6 3
Losses 13 25
Goals Scored 1.09 0.53
Goals Conceded 0.91 2.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Albania vs San Marino
2:1
Sep 29, 2026 UEFA Nations League
San Marino vs Albania
0:3
Sep 8, 2021 World Championship
Albania vs San Marino
5:0
Mar 31, 2021 World Championship
San Marino vs Albania
0:2
Mar 27, 2020 Friendly International
San Marino vs Albania
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Albania Compare

Top Goalscorer Asllani K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

San Marino Compare

Top Goalscorer Lazzari L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Albania 85 / 100
San Marino 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Albania San Marino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Albania Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: San Marino conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

San Marino lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Albania found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (32 games).

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Albania VS San Marino
1 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 3.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Albania

(Home)
06 Oct
Albania
2 : 1
San Marino
03 Oct
Finland
2 : 1
Albania
29 Sept
San Marino
0 : 3
Albania
26 Sept
Albania
2 : 0
Belarus
06 Jun
Albania
0 : 1
Luxembourg
Page 1 of 7

San Marino

(Away)
06 Oct
Albania
2 : 1
San Marino
03 Oct
Belarus
4 : 0
San Marino
29 Sept
San Marino
0 : 3
Albania
26 Sept
San Marino
0 : 7
Finland
09 Jun
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
San Marino
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albania 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
2 Belarus 4 2 1 1 5:2 7
3 Finland 4 2 1 1 9:2 7
4 San Marino 4 0 0 4 1:16 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montenegro 4 3 1 0 7:4 10
2 Cyprus 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Armenia 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
4 Latvia 4 0 1 3 2:6 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Slovakia 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
2 Faroe Islands 4 0 4 0 5:5 4
3 Moldova 4 1 1 2 3:8 4
4 Kazakhstan 4 0 2 2 5:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iceland 4 2 2 0 7:1 8
2 Estonia 4 1 3 0 2:1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 Luxembourg 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)