Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group A 2024/2025

Varese FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Albenga play Varese FC in the Serie D - Group A 2024/2025. Varese FC are favorites here. Recently, Albenga averaged 0.37 goals scored and 3.37 conceded. Varese FC averaged 1.48 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. In past meetings, Albenga won 0, Varese FC won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 12, 2025 ended 0:6. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Albenga and 1.30 for Varese FC. This points to a Varese FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%

Albenga

17%

Draws

71%

Varese FC

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Albenga picked up more points recently compared to Varese FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.30 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

Albenga Clean Sheet 19%

Varese FC Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Albenga	Varese FC
Matches Played	19	33
Wins	1	16
Draws	0	7
Losses	18	10
Goals Scored	0.37	1.48
Goals Conceded	3.37	1.39

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 12, 2025 Serie D - Group A

Albenga vs Varese FC

Possession: 46% - 57% Cards: 3 - 3

0:6

Sep 14, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Albenga

Possession: 59% - 48% Cards: 1 - 2

2:0

Feb 18, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Albenga vs Varese FC

Possession: 55% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

1:3

Oct 15, 2023 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Albenga

Possession: 50% - 53% Cards: 2 - 2

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Albenga Compare

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero N.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Barzotti M.

2 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Albenga 15 / 100

Varese FC 66 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Albenga Varese FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese FC Win (2)

Secondary Pick Varese FC & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +200%

25.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Albenga attacking → ← attacking Varese FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Albenga scored in 32% of their last 19 games.

Varese FC let in goals in 64% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Albenga went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Varese FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

3 Points in last 5 55

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bra	36	24	6	6	70:24	78
2	NovaRomentin	36	21	8	7	75:27	71
3	Gozzano	36	18	11	7	52:34	65
4	Vado	36	19	8	9	51:37	65
5	Lavagnese	36	18	10	8	49:35	64
6	Varese FC	36	17	11	8	47:34	62
7	Ligorna	36	16	10	10	55:42	58
8	Chisola	36	14	8	14	43:37	50
9	Saluzzo	36	12	14	10	39:35	50
10	Sanremese	36	10	15	11	31:33	45
11	Asti Calcio	36	11	12	13	36:46	45
12	Derthona FbC	36	11	11	14	41:50	44
13	Oltrepo	36	10	10	16	38:59	40
14	Imperia Calcio	36	10	8	18	52:58	38
15	Vogherese	36	8	13	15	31:44	37
16	Cairese	36	9	10	17	32:47	37
17	AC Chieri	36	7	10	19	33:58	31
18	Borgaro	36	8	4	24	34:77	28
19	Fossano	36	7	5	24	31:63	26
20	Albenga	0	0	0	0	0:0	-1