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Alberts JDFS vs FK Smiltene - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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1. Liga
Alberts JDFS Logo

Alberts JDFS

3 - 2
FT
FK Smiltene Logo

FK Smiltene

Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Zegele M.
Assist: Ozolins R.
45' Event
Zegele M.
(Penalty)
50' Event
Gaismins V.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The 1. Liga game between Alberts JDFS and FK Smiltene finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alberts JDFS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Alberts JDFS
15%
Draws
42%
FK Smiltene
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alberts JDFS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Alberts JDFS come out ahead of FK Smiltene on wins alone.
  • Alberts JDFS are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Alberts JDFS have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Alberts JDFS Clean Sheet 15%
FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alberts JDFS FK Smiltene
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 7
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.97 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.24 2.52
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 1. Liga
Alberts JDFS vs FK Smiltene
3:2
May 3, 2026 1. Liga
FK Smiltene vs Alberts JDFS
2:3
Jul 27, 2025 1. Liga
FK Smiltene vs Alberts JDFS
2:4
Jun 1, 2025 Latvian Cup
Alberts JDFS vs FK Smiltene
5:3
Mar 29, 2025 1. Liga
Alberts JDFS vs FK Smiltene
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alberts JDFS Compare

Top Goalscorer Zegele M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kalpaks J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

FK Smiltene Compare

Top Goalscorer Gaismins V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alberts JDFS 48 / 100
FK Smiltene 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alberts JDFS FK Smiltene

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alberts JDFS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Alberts JDFS scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: FK Smiltene conceded in 90% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 5.40 goals as a typical output.

Alberts JDFS went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alberts JDFS VS FK Smiltene
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Alberts JDFS

(Home)
10 Oct
Skanste
0 : 2
Alberts JDFS
19 Sept
Alberts JDFS
1 : 3
FK Metta
12 Sept
Alberts JDFS
1 : 2
Valmiera
05 Sept
Alberts JDFS
3 : 2
FK Smiltene
29 Aug
Marupe
0 : 2
Alberts JDFS
Page 1 of 6

FK Smiltene

(Away)
11 Oct
FK Smiltene
3 : 2
Tukums 2000 2
19 Sept
Super Nova 2
0 : 2
FK Smiltene
12 Sept
FK Smiltene
4 : 1
Riga Mariners
05 Sept
Alberts JDFS
3 : 2
FK Smiltene
29 Aug
FK Smiltene
0 : 6
FK Metta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Metta 22 18 3 1 93:17 57
2 Valmiera 22 16 4 2 61:24 52
3 Leevon PPK 22 16 4 2 47:25 52
4 Riga Mariners 22 14 5 3 50:27 47
5 Alberts JDFS 22 12 4 6 44:31 40
6 Marupe 22 10 2 10 37:34 32
7 Riga FC 2 21 7 5 9 29:37 26
8 Skanste 22 8 2 12 43:44 26
9 Super Nova 2 22 6 8 8 29:33 26
10 Tukums 2000 2 21 5 3 13 27:60 18
11 FK Smiltene 21 4 4 13 29:57 16
12 RFS 2 22 4 3 15 36:65 15
13 JFK Ventspils 22 3 6 13 21:45 15
14 Rezekne 21 1 3 17 17:64 6
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