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Albion vs Progreso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
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Match Events

2'
Ocampo A.
4'
Lopez A.
21' Event
Lopez N.

AI Match Summary

Progreso in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Progreso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Albion
20%
Draws
33%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Albion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Albion lately — more wins on the board than Progreso.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Albion taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Albion Clean Sheet 68%
Progreso Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Albion Progreso
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 7 1
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1.3 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Progreso
0:1
Sep 3, 2026 Copa Uruguay
Albion vs Progreso
2:1
Jun 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Albion
1:2
Mar 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Albion
2:2
Nov 29, 2023 Segunda Division
Progreso vs Albion
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Albion Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Progreso Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Albion 50 / 100
Progreso 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Albion Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Albion Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progreso let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Albion scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Recent resilience: Albion stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Albion VS Progreso
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Albion

(Home)
02 Nov
Albion
0 : 0
Maldonado
24 Oct
Central Esp.
1 : 3
Albion
18 Oct
Albion
2 : 1
Montevideo City
15 Oct
Maldonado
4 : 1
Albion
11 Oct
Cerro Largo
0 : 1
Albion
Page 1 of 6

Progreso

(Away)
01 Nov
Progreso
0 : 2
Defensor Sp.
25 Oct
Wanderers
0 : 1
Progreso
17 Oct
Progreso
2 : 0
Juventud
10 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Progreso
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)