Sport Picks
Albirex Niigata vs Iwata - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J2 League Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata 
Match Events
30'
30'
Moraes M.
Assist: Onishi Y.
45'
45'
Iago Teles
46'
46'
Sub
Matsubara K. In: Yoshimura R.
Out: Matsubara K.
AI Match Summary
Albirex Niigata in this J2 League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Albirex Niigata.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
53%
15%
32%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Albirex Niigata
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
32%
/ Low Confidence
- Iwata haven't matched Albirex Niigata's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Regular J2 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Albirex Niigata Clean Sheet 11%
Iwata Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Albirex Niigata | Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 17 | 12 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 11 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.28 | 1.39 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.34 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Iwata
2:1
Aug 7, 2024 J1 League
Albirex Niigata vs Iwata
2:2
Apr 3, 2024 J1 League
Iwata vs Albirex Niigata
2:0
Nov 3, 2021 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Iwata
0:1
Jul 3, 2021 J2 League
Iwata vs Albirex Niigata
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Albirex Niigata Compare
Top Goalscorer Moraes M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Iury Castilho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Iwata Compare
Top Goalscorer Sato D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Albirex Niigata 30 / 100
Iwata 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Albirex Niigata Iwata
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Iwata Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Iwata has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.
Albirex Niigata scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Albirex Niigata went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Albirex Niigata VS Iwata
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Albirex Niigata
(Home) 03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Tokushima
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Blaublitz
2 : 2 Albirex Niigata
19 Sept
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Iwata
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Tokushima
19 Sept
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Iwata
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
26 Aug
Albirex Niigata
0 : 4 Kagoshima United
22 Aug
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Fujieda MYFC
Page 1 of 4
Iwata
(Away) 04 Oct
Vegalta Sendai
2 : 1 Iwata
29 Sept
Iwata
4 : 2 Chiba
26 Sept
Iwata
1 : 2 Vanraure
19 Sept
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Iwata
12 Sept
Kofu
0 : 1 Iwata
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Vegalta Sendai
2 : 1 Iwata
19 Sept
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Iwata
12 Sept
Kofu
0 : 1 Iwata
02 Sept
SC Sagamihara
0 : 3 Iwata
29 Aug
Tochigi City
1 : 3 Iwata
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13:13 | 19 |
| 3 | Toyama | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:9 | 17 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17:8 | 17 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:11 | 17 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10:8 | 16 |
| 7 | Fujieda MYFC | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:10 | 13 |
| 8 | Blaublitz | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 9 | Tokushima | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9:10 | 13 |
| 10 | Montedio Yamagata | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11:8 | 12 |
| 11 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:13 | 12 |
| 12 | Oita Trinita | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9:7 | 11 |
| 13 | Tochigi City | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15:15 | 10 |
| 14 | Iwata | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11:13 | 10 |
| 15 | Vanraure | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5:14 | 10 |
| 16 | Iwaki | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12:17 | 9 |
| 17 | Sagan Tosu | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 18 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12:18 | 8 |
| 19 | Imabari | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | 7 |
| 20 | Kofu | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7:17 | 7 |
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