Sport Picks
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J2 League Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata 
Match Events
46'
46'
Maeda R.
Assist: Kuwayama K.
46'
46'
Sub
Enomoto K. In: Disaro A. S.
Out: Enomoto K.
55'
55'
Disaro A. S.
AI Match Summary
The J2 League game between Albirex Niigata and Montedio Yamagata finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Albirex Niigata.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
65%
15%
20%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Albirex Niigata
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Albirex Niigata come out ahead of Montedio Yamagata on wins alone.
- 65% — that's where the model lands on Albirex Niigata taking it.
- Regular J2 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Albirex Niigata Clean Sheet 68%
Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Albirex Niigata | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 17 | 11 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 10 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata
1:0
Jul 25, 2026 Club Friendly
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata
3:4
Oct 1, 2022 J2 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Albirex Niigata
1:1
May 29, 2022 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata
3:0
Sep 11, 2021 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Albirex Niigata Compare
Top Goalscorer Maeda R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Montedio Yamagata Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Albirex Niigata 59 / 100
Montedio Yamagata 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Albirex Niigata Montedio Yamagata
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Albirex Niigata Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Attacking prowess: Albirex Niigata scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.
Montedio Yamagata let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.
Albirex Niigata went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Albirex Niigata VS Montedio Yamagata
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Albirex Niigata
(Home) 03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Tokushima
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Blaublitz
2 : 2 Albirex Niigata
19 Sept
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Iwata
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Tokushima
19 Sept
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1 Iwata
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
26 Aug
Albirex Niigata
0 : 4 Kagoshima United
22 Aug
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Fujieda MYFC
Page 1 of 4
Montedio Yamagata
(Away) 03 Oct
Oita Trinita
2 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
29 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Yokohama F. Marinos
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Oita Trinita
2 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
09 Sept
Tochigi SC
0 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
29 Aug
Imabari
0 : 3 Montedio Yamagata
15 Aug
Shonan Bellmare
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omiya Ardija | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20:9 | 20 |
| 2 | Vegalta Sendai | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13:13 | 19 |
| 4 | Toyama | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:9 | 17 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19:13 | 17 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10:8 | 16 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11:8 | 14 |
| 8 | Fujieda MYFC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 9 | Blaublitz | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 10 | Iwata | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12:13 | 13 |
| 11 | Tokushima | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10:12 | 13 |
| 12 | Montedio Yamagata | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11:8 | 12 |
| 13 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:13 | 12 |
| 14 | Sagan Tosu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:12 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi City | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16:17 | 10 |
| 16 | Imabari | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11:19 | 10 |
| 17 | Kofu | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | 10 |
| 18 | Vanraure | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6:17 | 10 |
| 19 | Iwaki | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 8 |
Promotion - J1 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J2 League (Promotion)
Relegation - J3 League 2027/2028 (Main)
