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Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Terayama T.
45' Event
49' Event

AI Match Summary

Montedio Yamagata in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montedio Yamagata.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Albirex Niigata
15%
Draws
20%
Montedio Yamagata
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Albirex Niigata

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Albirex Niigata lately — more wins on the board than Montedio Yamagata.
  • Model gives Albirex Niigata a 65% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Albirex Niigata Clean Sheet 68%
Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Albirex Niigata Montedio Yamagata
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 11
Draws 1 0
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.25 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata
1:0
Jul 25, 2026 Club Friendly
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata
3:4
Oct 1, 2022 J2 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Albirex Niigata
1:1
May 29, 2022 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata
3:0
Sep 11, 2021 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Albirex Niigata Compare

Top Goalscorer Kuwayama K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shirai E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Montedio Yamagata Compare

Top Goalscorer Terayama T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yokoyama R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Albirex Niigata 59 / 100
Montedio Yamagata 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Albirex Niigata Montedio Yamagata

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Albirex Niigata Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Albirex Niigata's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Montedio Yamagata let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Albirex Niigata stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Albirex Niigata VS Montedio Yamagata
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Albirex Niigata

(Home)
03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1
Tokushima
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0
Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Blaublitz
2 : 2
Albirex Niigata
19 Sept
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1
Iwata
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0
Montedio Yamagata
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Montedio Yamagata

(Away)
03 Oct
Oita Trinita
2 : 1
Montedio Yamagata
29 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2
Yokohama F. Marinos
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0
Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2
Toyama
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0
Montedio Yamagata
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