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Alcantarilla vs Santa Cruz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Our Tip

Match Events

67' Event
Morales G.
76' Event
Ledesma A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 13 game between Alcantarilla and Santa Cruz finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Alcantarilla
35%
Draws
26%
Santa Cruz
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Alcantarilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Santa Cruz's 1.1 goals per match outpaces what Alcantarilla have produced (0.87).
  • Win probability leans Alcantarilla's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 13 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Alcantarilla Clean Sheet 68%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alcantarilla Santa Cruz
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 9 7
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.87 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Alcantarilla vs Santa Cruz
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alcantarilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Ledesma A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.37

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alcantarilla 59 / 100
Santa Cruz 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alcantarilla Santa Cruz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alcantarilla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Alcantarilla stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Alcantarilla scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Santa Cruz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Alcantarilla VS Santa Cruz
0.83 Goals Scored 1
0.33 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alcantarilla

(Home)
04 Oct
Alcantarilla
1 : 1
Santa Cruz
27 Sept
Bala Azul
0 : 1
Alcantarilla
20 Sept
Alcantarilla
2 : 0
Cotillas CD
12 Sept
Alcantarilla
0 : 0
CA Pulpileno
06 Sept
Aguilas FC B
1 : 1
Alcantarilla
Page 1 of 7

Santa Cruz

(Away)
04 Oct
Alcantarilla
1 : 1
Santa Cruz
26 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 1
Aguilas FC B
20 Sept
Mazarron FC
2 : 2
Santa Cruz
12 Sept
Santa Cruz
2 : 1
Club Olimpico de Totana
06 Sept
San Javier
3 : 2
Santa Cruz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santomera 5 4 1 0 11:6 13
2 San Javier 5 3 2 0 8:5 11
3 Alcantarilla 5 2 3 0 5:2 9
4 Molinense 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
5 CA Pulpileno 5 2 2 1 6:4 8
6 Club Olimpico de Totana 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
7 Minerva 5 2 2 1 3:2 8
8 Cotillas CD 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
9 Santa Cruz 5 1 3 1 8:8 6
10 UCAM Murcia B 5 1 2 2 8:6 5
11 Bullas Deportivo 4 1 2 1 5:3 5
12 Aguilas FC B 5 0 5 0 5:5 5
13 Bala Azul 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
14 UD Los Garres 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
15 FC Cartagena SAD B 5 1 2 2 6:8 5
16 Deportivo Maritimo 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
17 CD Algar 5 1 0 4 3:10 3
18 Mazarron FC 5 0 1 4 5:9 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 6 (Promotion - Play Offs)