Sport Picks
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Club Atletico Morelia
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, Oaxaca de Juárez 
Match Events
2'
2'
Moreno G.
Assist: Palma A.
5'
5'
del Campo R.
Assist: Dominguez M.
11'
11'
Zamora D.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Club Atletico Morelia finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Club Atletico Morelia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca haven't matched Club Atletico Morelia's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 14%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Club Atletico Morelia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 7 | 12 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 13 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.38 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.38 | 1.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 17, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Club Atletico Morelia
0:3
Aug 9, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3:1
Feb 9, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:1
Aug 25, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Club Atletico Morelia
1:1
Apr 13, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Club Atletico Morelia
3:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Top Goalscorer del Campo R.
2 Goals Assists Leader Moreno G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 31 / 100
Club Atletico Morelia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Club Atletico Morelia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Alebrijes de Oaxaca scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Club Atletico Morelia let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.
Difficult form: Club Atletico Morelia registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alebrijes de Oaxaca VS Club Atletico Morelia
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Home) 18 Apr
Correcaminos
1 : 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Apr
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
04 Apr
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
28 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Leones Negros
21 Mar
Atletico La Paz
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6
11 Apr
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
28 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Leones Negros
13 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4 : 3 Tapatio
27 Feb
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
14 Feb
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 : 0 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 3
Club Atletico Morelia
(Away) 05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3 Cruz Azul
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
19 Apr
Jaiba Brava
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 7
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
19 Apr
Jaiba Brava
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
05 Apr
Leones Negros
2 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
22 Mar
Tapatio
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)