Sport Picks
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, Oaxaca de Juárez 
Match Events
16'
16'
Munoz D.
Assist: Villa O.
34'
34'
Munoz D.
45'
45'
Sub
Aguayo J. In: Flores B.
Out: Aguayo J.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Leones Negros finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
13%
17%
70%
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
88%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Leones Negros come out ahead of Alebrijes de Oaxaca on wins alone.
- Model gives Leones Negros a 70% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 11%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Leones Negros |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 7 | 9 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 14 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.75 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.75 | 1.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros
1:1
Oct 18, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0:1
Mar 16, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3:2
Sep 29, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros
2:2
Feb 15, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Top Goalscorer Meza S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Munoz D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14 / 100
Leones Negros 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Leones Negros
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LEO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alebrijes de Oaxaca found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).
Leones Negros's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Solid form: Alebrijes de Oaxaca remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Alebrijes de Oaxaca VS Leones Negros
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
2.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Home) 31 Jul
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
25 Jul
Venados FC
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
18 Apr
Correcaminos
1 : 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Apr
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
04 Apr
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6
31 Jul
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
11 Apr
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
28 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Leones Negros
13 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4 : 3 Tapatio
27 Feb
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
Page 1 of 3
Leones Negros
(Away) 02 Aug
Cancun
0 : 2 Leones Negros
25 Jul
Tlaxcala
2 : 4 Leones Negros
19 Apr
Leones Negros
1 : 2 Cancun
12 Apr
Venados FC
2 : 1 Leones Negros
05 Apr
Leones Negros
2 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 6
02 Aug
Cancun
0 : 2 Leones Negros
25 Jul
Tlaxcala
2 : 4 Leones Negros
12 Apr
Venados FC
2 : 1 Leones Negros
28 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Leones Negros
15 Mar
Dorados de Sinaloa
1 : 1 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
