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Stadium Background

Alessandria vs Sestri Levante

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Alessandria
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Bruzzo M.
11' Event
Diop M.
37' Event
Cirio E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A game between Alessandria and Sestri Levante finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alessandria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Alessandria
15%
Draws
46%
Sestri Levante
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sestri Levante

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sestri Levante come out ahead of Alessandria on wins alone.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Alessandria Clean Sheet 18%
Sestri Levante Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alessandria Sestri Levante
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 4 11
Draws 5 9
Losses 20 10
Goals Scored 0.55 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Alessandria vs Sestri Levante
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alessandria Compare

Top Goalscorer Diop M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cirio E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Sestri Levante Compare

Top Goalscorer Bruzzo M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alessandria 32 / 100
Sestri Levante 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alessandria Sestri Levante

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sestri Levante Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sestri Levante let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Alessandria scored in 45% of their last 29 games.

Recent resilience: Alessandria stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alessandria VS Sestri Levante
1.2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.6 Goals Conceded 1.5
80% Over 1.5 75%
80% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alessandria

(Home)
16 Sept
Millesimo
4 : 1
Alessandria
13 Sept
Alessandria
2 : 1
Sestri Levante
06 Sept
Valenzana
1 : 2
Alessandria
04 Aug
Alessandria
1 : 2
Juventus U23
28 Apr
Alessandria
1 : 2
Vicenza
Page 1 of 6

Sestri Levante

(Away)
20 Sept
GSD Lascaris
1 : 1
Sestri Levante
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Fezzanese
13 Sept
Alessandria
2 : 1
Sestri Levante
06 Sept
Sestri Levante
2 : 0
Asti Calcio
19 Aug
Sampdoria U20
1 : 4
Sestri Levante
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Derthona FbC 4 3 1 0 6:3 10
2 Saluzzo 4 2 2 0 8:4 8
3 AS Biellese 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
4 GSD Lascaris 4 2 2 0 3:1 8
5 Fezzanese 3 2 1 0 6:1 7
6 Asti Calcio 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
7 Millesimo 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
8 Alessandria 3 2 0 1 5:6 6
9 Sanremese 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
10 Imperia Calcio 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
11 Ligorna 4 1 1 2 7:8 4
12 Chisola 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
13 Sestri Levante 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
14 Borgosesia Calcio 3 0 2 1 1:3 2
15 Bra 4 0 2 2 2:4 2
16 Gozzano 3 0 2 1 0:2 2
17 Valenzana 4 0 1 3 4:7 1
18 Celle Varazze 4 0 0 4 1:7 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)