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Alfaro vs Mutilvera

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Morillas Idoate R.
69' Event
Salvador M.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 game between Alfaro and Mutilvera finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alfaro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Alfaro
30%
Draws
39%
Mutilvera
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mutilvera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mutilvera come out ahead of Alfaro on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Alfaro Clean Sheet 15%
Mutilvera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alfaro Mutilvera
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 7
Draws 6 6
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 0.93 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Alfaro vs Mutilvera
2:0
Dec 13, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Mutilvera vs Alfaro
0:0
Apr 23, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Alfaro vs Mutilvera
2:1
Dec 10, 2022 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Mutilvera vs Alfaro
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alfaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Morillas Idoate R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Salvador M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Mutilvera Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alfaro 31 / 100
Mutilvera 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alfaro Mutilvera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mutilvera has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Alfaro scored in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Alfaro has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alfaro VS Mutilvera
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
2.5 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alfaro

(Home)
13 Sept
Alfaro
2 : 1
Yague
06 Sept
Calasancio
2 : 2
Alfaro
07 Aug
Alfaro
0 : 4
Tudelano
01 May
Real Union
2 : 0
Alfaro
26 Apr
Alfaro
0 : 1
SD Logrones
Page 1 of 6

Mutilvera

(Away)
12 Sept
Mutilvera
1 : 0
Gazte Berriak
05 Sept
Huarte
0 : 0
Mutilvera
18 Aug
Mutilvera
1 : 1
Pena
03 May
Mutilvera
0 : 2
Amorebieta
26 Apr
UD Logrones
3 : 0
Mutilvera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Union 34 20 9 5 64:35 69
2 Alaves B 34 17 11 6 41:20 62
3 UD Logrones 34 18 7 9 73:33 61
4 Utebo FC 34 17 7 10 56:42 58
5 Tudelano 34 16 9 9 56:40 57
6 Amorebieta 34 13 11 10 38:32 50
7 Sestao 34 12 14 8 40:33 50
8 Ebro 34 11 16 7 42:36 49
9 Eibar B 34 14 7 13 41:42 49
10 Basconia 34 11 14 9 55:43 47
11 Gernika Club 34 12 9 13 34:40 45
12 Naxara 34 11 8 15 39:48 41
13 SD Logrones 34 8 13 13 22:40 37
14 Beasain 34 8 12 14 38:46 36
15 SD Ejea 34 8 11 15 35:55 35
16 Mutilvera 34 8 6 20 31:65 30
17 Zaragoza B 34 7 7 20 32:59 28
18 Alfaro 34 6 7 21 32:60 25
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)