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Stadium Background

Alfaro vs Yague

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Jimenez I.
33' Event
Azofra S.
54' Event
Vazquez J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 16 game between Alfaro and Yague finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alfaro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Alfaro
30%
Draws
23%
Yague
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alfaro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Yague's 1.15 goals per match outpaces what Alfaro have produced (1.13).
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 16 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Alfaro have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Alfaro Clean Sheet 12%
Yague Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alfaro Yague
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 8 8
Draws 6 13
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.13 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Alfaro vs Yague
2:1
Feb 20, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Alfaro vs Yague
2:0
Oct 10, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Yague vs Alfaro
0:3
Mar 29, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Yague vs Alfaro
0:0
Nov 10, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Alfaro vs Yague
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alfaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Jimenez I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vazquez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Yague Compare

Top Goalscorer Azofra S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alfaro 30 / 100
Yague 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alfaro Yague

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Yague let in goals in 76% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Difficult form: Yague registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Alfaro's goal record stands at 58% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Alfaro VS Yague
1.25 Goals Scored 1
2.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alfaro

(Home)
13 Sept
Alfaro
2 : 1
Yague
06 Sept
Calasancio
2 : 2
Alfaro
07 Aug
Alfaro
0 : 4
Tudelano
01 May
Real Union
2 : 0
Alfaro
26 Apr
Alfaro
0 : 1
SD Logrones
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Yague

(Away)
13 Sept
Alfaro
2 : 1
Yague
05 Sept
Yague
1 : 2
Berceo
09 May
Yague
4 : 4
CD Calahorra
30 Apr
Berceo
2 : 0
Yague
26 Apr
Comillas CF
1 : 1
Yague
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Berceo 2 2 0 0 9:1 6
2 CDFC La Calzada 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
3 CD Calahorra 3 2 0 1 8:5 6
4 Anguiano 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
5 Comillas CF 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
6 San Marcial 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
7 Haro Deportivo 2 1 1 0 5:4 4
8 Alfaro 2 1 1 0 4:3 4
9 Pradejon 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
10 Yague 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
11 Oyonesa 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
12 Casalarreina CF 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
13 Varea 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
14 Cenicero 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
15 Calasancio 3 0 2 1 5:6 2
16 Agoncillo 3 0 2 1 5:7 2
17 Vianes 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
18 River Ebro 3 0 0 3 1:10 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 (Play Offs)