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Alfonsine vs SCD Progresso Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group D 2019/2020
Our Tip

Match Events

55'
Cocchi M.
55'
Cocchi M.
79' Event
Saporeti M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2019/2020 game between Alfonsine and SCD Progresso finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alfonsine.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Alfonsine
15%
Draws
36%
SCD Progresso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alfonsine

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SCD Progresso come out ahead of Alfonsine on wins alone.
  • Model gives Alfonsine a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2019/2020 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Alfonsine Clean Sheet 68%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alfonsine SCD Progresso
Matches Played 21 33
Wins 5 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 0.67 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 5, 2020 Serie D - Group D
Alfonsine vs SCD Progresso
1:0
Sep 1, 2019 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Alfonsine
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alfonsine Compare

Top Goalscorer Saporeti M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

SCD Progresso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alfonsine 95 / 100
SCD Progresso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alfonsine SCD Progresso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alfonsine Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: SCD Progresso conceded in 79% of 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: SCD Progresso registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Alfonsine scored in 52% of their last 21 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS SCD Progresso
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alfonsine

(Home)
23 Feb
Alfonsine
0 : 1
Ciliverghe Mazzano
16 Feb
Sammaurese
0 : 0
Alfonsine
09 Feb
Alfonsine
1 : 0
Franciacorta
02 Feb
Breno
2 : 0
Alfonsine
26 Jan
Correggese
1 : 0
Alfonsine
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SCD Progresso

(Away)
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0
SCD Progresso
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3
Seravezza Pozzi
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1
Scandicci
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
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