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Alfreton vs Bury FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Stepans R.
24' Event
Robinson O.
(Penalty)
42' Event
Ligendza S.

AI Match Summary

Bury FC in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bury FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Alfreton
15%
Draws
49%
Bury FC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bury FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Bury FC have won more games recently than Alfreton.
  • Model gives Alfreton a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Alfreton Clean Sheet 10%
Bury FC Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alfreton Bury FC
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 10 17
Draws 5 1
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.21 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Alfreton vs Bury FC
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alfreton Compare

Top Goalscorer Ligendza S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Odunaiya D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Bury FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Stepans R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pedro D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alfreton 40 / 100
Bury FC 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alfreton Bury FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Alfreton scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Bury FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 26 matches.

Alfreton went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alfreton VS Bury FC
1.13 Goals Scored 3
1 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Alfreton

(Home)
06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0
United of Manchester
03 Oct
Redcar Athletic
3 : 1
Alfreton
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0
Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1
Shifnal Town
12 Sept
Bamber Bridge
1 : 0
Alfreton
Page 1 of 6

Bury FC

(Away)
06 Oct
Stockton
1 : 0
Bury FC
03 Oct
Bury FC
2 : 1
Bromsgrove
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3
Gainsborough
19 Sept
Bury FC
5 : 1
Workington
12 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 0
AFC Emley
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 12 8 3 1 27:7 27
2 Avro 10 8 1 1 33:19 25
3 Redcar Athletic 12 7 4 1 23:11 25
4 Guiseley 11 7 1 3 24:11 22
5 Workington 12 6 3 3 23:19 21
6 Warrington Rylands 12 6 2 4 20:17 20
7 Curzon Ashton 10 6 1 3 21:11 19
8 Alfreton 12 6 0 6 18:13 18
9 Warrington Town 10 5 3 2 20:16 18
10 Bury FC 10 5 1 4 19:9 16
11 Gainsborough 10 5 1 4 20:14 16
12 Lancaster 12 5 1 6 16:24 16
13 Hyde 12 4 2 6 13:21 14
14 Ashton United 10 3 3 4 12:11 12
15 Whitby 11 4 0 7 17:32 12
16 Stockton 12 3 2 7 15:22 11
17 Leek Town 11 2 4 5 22:23 10
18 Quorn 11 2 4 5 18:27 10
19 AFC Emley 11 2 4 5 10:22 10
20 Bamber Bridge 11 2 3 6 16:31 9
21 Ilkeston 12 2 1 9 7:26 7
22 United of Manchester 10 1 2 7 12:20 5
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