Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alianza vs Dep. Cali

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Alianza play Dep. Cali in the Primera A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Alianza averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. Dep. Cali averaged 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Alianza won 3, Dep. Cali won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 21, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.76 for Alianza and 1.38 for Dep. Cali. This points to a Dep. Cali double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Alianza
22%
Draws
41%
Dep. Cali
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Dep. Cali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Alianza picked up more points recently compared to Dep. Cali.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.76 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 58%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Over 3.5 Goals 16%
Over 4.5 Goals 8%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Alianza Clean Sheet 17%
Dep. Cali Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 52%
Second Half Goal 55%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alianza Dep. Cali
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 11 8
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.9 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.19 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 Copa Colombia
Dep. Cali vs Alianza
1:0
Mar 22, 2026 Primera A
Alianza vs Dep. Cali
1:0
Oct 28, 2025 Primera A
Dep. Cali vs Alianza
0:1
May 11, 2025 Primera A
Alianza vs Dep. Cali
2:0
Jul 22, 2024 Primera A
Dep. Cali vs Alianza
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alianza Compare

Top Goalscorer Cantillo F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Dep. Cali Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alianza 37 / 100
Dep. Cali 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alianza Dep. Cali

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dep. Cali or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +28.5%
4.76
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Alianza attacking → ← attacking Dep. Cali

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alianza scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Dep. Cali let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Alianza went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Dep. Cali lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 41
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atl. Nacional19131535:1540
2Junior19112631:2435
3Dep. Pasto19104529:2534
4America De Cali19103625:1533
5Once Caldas1989231:2233
6Deportes Tolima1987427:1731
7Santa Fe1978429:2229
8Inter Bogotá1977526:2628
9Dep. Cali1976620:1627
10Millonarios1975731:2326
11Ind. Medellin1975726:2426
12Aguilas Doradas1975720:2526
13Bucaramanga1958626:2023
14Llaneros19410517:2022
15Fortaleza C.E.I.F.1957722:2722
16Jaguares de Cordoba19531120:3318
17Alianza1938813:2717
18Chico19521215:3217
19Cucuta1937922:3516
20Dep. Pereira19171115:3210