Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alianza vs Junior

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Meza Mercado E. W.
18'
Sub
Meza Mercado E. W. In: Fernandez W.
Out: Meza Mercado E. W.
26'
Alba I.

AI Match Summary

Alianza in this Primera A matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alianza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Alianza
35%
Draws
49%
Junior
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Junior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Alianza haven't matched Junior's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Junior a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Alianza Clean Sheet 14%
Junior Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alianza Junior
Matches Played 28 35
Wins 5 13
Draws 10 9
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 0.82 1.49
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Primera A
Alianza vs Junior
1:0
Mar 6, 2026 Primera A
Junior vs Alianza
1:1
Oct 12, 2025 Primera A
Alianza vs Junior
0:1
Apr 19, 2025 Primera A
Junior vs Alianza
2:0
Aug 4, 2024 Primera A
Junior vs Alianza
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alianza Compare

Top Goalscorer Meza Mercado E. W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Junior Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alianza 23 / 100
Junior 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alianza Junior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Junior Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Junior has conceded goals in 74% of their last 35 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Alianza scored in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Alianza went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alianza VS Junior
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alianza

(Home)
10 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0
Alianza
03 Sept
America De Cali
3 : 0
Alianza
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5
Atl. Nacional
26 Aug
Cucuta
1 : 0
Alianza
22 Aug
Alianza
0 : 0
Dep. Pereira
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Junior

(Away)
06 Sept
Junior
3 : 3
Jaguares de Cordoba
29 Aug
Junior
1 : 1
Santa Fe
26 Aug
America De Cali
4 : 2
Junior
24 Aug
Junior
1 : 1
Once Caldas
02 Aug
Junior
0 : 1
Millonarios
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America De Cali 8 6 2 0 20:4 20
2 Deportes Tolima 8 5 1 2 12:9 16
3 Ind. Medellin 7 5 0 2 13:8 15
4 Santa Fe 8 3 4 1 12:9 13
5 Millonarios 9 3 4 2 10:7 13
6 Atl. Nacional 5 4 0 1 12:4 12
7 Inter Bogotá 9 2 5 2 11:12 11
8 Llaneros 9 3 2 4 11:12 11
9 Aguilas Doradas 6 2 4 0 10:8 10
10 Bucaramanga 6 2 4 0 7:5 10
11 Once Caldas 7 2 3 2 11:9 9
12 Dep. Cali 7 2 3 2 9:7 9
13 Cucuta 8 2 3 3 8:13 9
14 Fortaleza C.E.I.F. 9 1 5 3 10:12 8
15 Chico 7 2 2 3 6:13 8
16 Jaguares de Cordoba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
17 Dep. Pereira 6 1 3 2 3:6 6
18 Junior 6 0 3 3 8:12 3
19 Dep. Pasto 8 0 2 6 7:15 2
20 Alianza 7 0 2 5 5:15 2
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)